Although there have been many news reports from the Middle East over the weekend, the US and Israel are currently holding back, and the crypto market appears somewhat dull. Bitcoin has been fluctuating around the $90,000 mark, but the daily chart continues to trend downward. Coupled with the unresolved international situation, the bulls lack confidence and are unable to break through. This week, the US will release a series of economic data such as CPI, but market attention remains focused on Trump's movements. It is expected that the market will still be primarily driven by news, especially any changes in the Middle East situation.

According to the latest data from the exchange derivatives market, the situation has become a bit delicate. Bitcoin's open interest experienced a significant reversal within just three days — on January 8th, it was still increasing (+9%), but by the 11th, it plummeted to -2%, a drop of over 11 percentage points. This indicates that a large number of traders are actively closing positions, with the bullish camp either voluntarily exiting or being forced to liquidate. Meanwhile, the accumulated trading volume Delta continues to weaken, and selling pressure is steadily building. When open interest contracts and trading volume decline simultaneously, it generally confirms that bulls are retreating en masse and that the bearish forces are regaining strength.

However, there is still some interesting activity in the capital flow — large inflows have increased from $3 billion to $3.6 billion over a 30-day period. Although the increase is modest, it is indeed growing. This pattern is somewhat reminiscent of early October last year and may hint at the beginning of a distribution phase.