2026-01-12 02:20:47

This week is likely more critical for the crypto space than you might imagine. How the US stock market moves will directly influence crypto assets, so it’s crucial to keep pace with US economic data.

Let's start with the key term this week: CPI. Everything hinges on this.

On Tuesday early morning, the US will conduct a 10-year Treasury bond auction. This is no small matter—US bond yields influence global asset pricing. If bond market demand remains strong and long-term yields stay suppressed, it’s a positive signal for US stocks and the entire risk asset sector, and the crypto market will naturally benefit as well.

The turning point comes Tuesday night. The December US CPI data will be released, and this is the "main event." The market currently expects a 2.74% increase, almost unchanged from last month. But here’s the issue—US employment conditions are not bad enough to warrant an immediate rate cut. To stimulate market speculation about a rate cut in the first half of the year or an earlier cut, CPI needs to continue to decline. In other words, the market is hoping to see data that is "relatively low and dovish."

Then on Wednesday, the so-called "horrible data"—the US November retail sales figures—will be released. Consumer spending is the backbone of the US economy. This data directly reflects the strength or weakness of the economy and has a significant impact on the market, so it must be closely watched. On the same day, the US November PPI data will also be released. As long as there are no extreme deviations, it’s not a big issue; it mainly serves as an auxiliary indicator to verify inflation trends.

Early Thursday morning, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book will be published. This report summarizes the economic conditions, price levels, and employment trends across 12 Federal Reserve districts. While mostly qualitative, it helps investors see the true economic temperature from the Fed’s perspective and judge whether signs of cooling are genuine.

The logical chain this week is: Tuesday’s bond auction and CPI set the market mood → Wednesday’s retail data assess whether the economy is stalling → Thursday’s Beige Book confirms the trend. Volatility this week is inevitable, so it’s smarter to prepare in advance rather than chase after the market after the fact.

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RunWithRugs

· 9h ago

Damn, I have to keep an eye on CPI again. No sleep this week. If CPI is lower, we make money; if it's higher, we have to run. It's really that simple. Retail data is the real horror; if consumption collapses, the economy is finished. That Beige Book thing is too vague; it's better to look at US Treasury yields for real insight. If there's wild volatility this week, I'll just liquidate everything and relax.

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LiquidatedAgain

· 12h ago

Another week of the chosen one market, I bet five bucks I'll be liquidated again by Tuesday. Who dares to move before the CPI data is out? I went all in last time and lost big. Retail data is the real killer; when consumption softens and the economy stalls, my risk control levels are directly breached. That terrifying data on Wednesday... really terrifying, those who tried to bottom fish all became bagholders. Before the Beige Book is released, let's pray that the rate cut expectations don't collapse, or else adding to positions will be useless. By the way, what's the use of having a plan? I always have a plan, but I still get liquidated again and again.

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LiquidityWitch

· 12h ago

so we're really doing this whole "macro data alchemy" thing again huh... the feds bout to transmute our bags either way ngl. CPI's the spell, retail's the sacrifice, and we're all just watching the cauldron bubble. honestly if that beige book doesn't whisper some forbidden liquidation signals i'm gonna be so mad lmao

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GateUser-0717ab66

· 12h ago

Another week of data bombardment, this time we need to keep a close eye on CPI. That US Treasury auction on Tuesday is really critical; if yields can't be pushed down, we better be mentally prepared. Wait, retail data is so important, why is no one discussing it? Feels severely underestimated. If CPI exceeds expectations, I’ll go all-in on short positions, no more riding this market. This week, it all depends on the Beige Book to determine life or death; everything else is just a backdrop. People who have already placed counter-position orders in advance should be able to make a small profit this week, provided they are lucky. Is that "horrible data" on Wednesday really terrifying? Feels like every time they say it's very fierce, but nothing really happens. What tricks is the Federal Reserve playing? I just can't see through it. The biggest fear for small retail investors is this kind of cycle; as soon as the data comes out, they cut their positions immediately. It's too intense. Is it likely that CPI will be suppressed? I bet on a Bitcoin that it will surpass.

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MetaMaskVictim

· 12h ago

Here we go again, having to monitor American data every week. Have we really become just a vassal? If CPI doesn't come down, we can't play either. That's the reality... Had a bad night on Tuesday, waiting to be beaten up. Retail data is the real killer; if consumption weakens, it's game over. That thing called the Beige Book is just the Federal Reserve's pie in the sky. Believe it or not. This week, I'm just going to sit back and watch the show. Anyway, whatever happens, we're the ones getting cut.

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