2026-01-12 01:25:36

The issue of insider trading on Polymarket has been a hot topic, with almost daily complaints. The complaints come one after another, criticizing how unfair this approach is. However, whether it's fair or not is a separate matter — the key point is that this trend has become an inevitable force.

Coinbase founder Brian Armstrong recently shared an interesting perspective: trading markets and truth discovery markets are actually two different things. Trading markets are zero-sum games, aiming to profit from price differences. In contrast, the logic of truth discovery markets is entirely different — their goal is to extract information and verify facts through market mechanisms.

This distinction is worth pondering. The future of prediction markets may be unfolding through the collision and integration of these two models.

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FantasyGuardian

· 8h ago

Basically, Poly has now become a playground for insiders, nobody trusts it anymore. --- BA's viewpoint is good, but the truth is that the market can't really operate in reality. --- Fusion? Probably just a bigger money-grabbing machine. --- Watching Poly's complaints every day, it feels like the prediction market is becoming more and more sinister. --- Zero-sum games and information discovery markets are indistinguishable, no wonder it's a mess now. --- The idea of uncovering the truth sounds ideal, but with all the insider trading, it's hard to believe. --- If these two models truly merge, retail investors will be the ones harmed, which is not surprising at all.

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HashBard

· 9h ago

ngl armstrong's hitting on something real here—trading vs truth-seeking are basically different games wearing the same jersey. polymarket's insider drama is just noise masking the actual problem: we built casinos when we needed oracles, fr fr

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AlphaWhisperer

· 9h ago

BA's point is quite insightful, and there's nothing wrong with what they said... But those insiders at Polymarket have long mixed the two markets into a mess, and it's impossible to separate them now.

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AirDropMissed

· 9h ago

The idea of "truth discovery market" sounds good, but Polymarket is now just pure zero-sum gambling, and insiders have long exploited information arbitrage. Without solving the issue of insider trading, talking about truth discovery is all empty talk. Armstrong's point is correct; it's just that no one is implementing it now. Polymarket has indeed become a casino. Prediction markets have potential, but if Poly continues like this, it will only get worse. Fusion of the two models? First, clear out the black boxes. Sounds nice, but isn't it just trying to whitewash insiders?

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