2026-01-12 01:23:56

Recently, I’ve encountered quite a few pitfalls on a major exchange’s event contract. Honestly, the odds have now dropped to 75%, so there’s not much point in playing, so I might as well hold off for now. As these odds keep decreasing, the profit margins are getting squeezed tighter. In the short term, I’ll try testing the waters with small amounts on a major exchange.

Yesterday, my feel was off, and I got a bit impatient. Some of my operations were indeed impulsive. Instead of blindly increasing my position, it’s better to run a small test first—set a one-month experiment period, carefully track the win rate, and then decide whether to increase the order size based on the data.

On January 11th, I placed a total of 12 orders. 7 wins and 5 losses, with a win rate of 58%. With a single bet of 20U, the profit for that day was 15.4U. The numbers aren’t spectacular, but at least they show that the strategy still has potential in this odds environment.

Next, it’s all about continuous recording and strategy optimization.

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TrustlessMaximalist

· 21h ago

75% odds still playing? You should have run long ago, brother. 58% win rate is actually pretty good; keep recording data and see. 20U small test is stable; don't get carried away again. In this environment, you need to look at long-term data; 15.4U per day doesn't mean much. I feel like you're just making excuses to keep playing... Odds are getting worse and worse, which is a signal; you should consider switching pools. Keep recording, but don't over-interpret small samples.

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GamefiHarvester

· 23h ago

75% odds, what's the point of playing? I also need to stay calm. Speaking of which, a 58% win rate is really stable. Anyone who can stick to the record for a month has made a profit. Overly aggressive trading is the most dangerous. It's wise to test the waters with a small amount like 20U. In this odds environment, breaking even is already good. Everyone, don't be greedy.

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FUDwatcher

· 23h ago

58% win rate and still want to turn things around? The odds are already pushed to 75, buddy. This environment is indeed tricky. Let's wait for a month's data before talking. Don't get carried away and mess around anymore. A $15 profit, hard-earned money. Take it slow. The rapid decrease in odds makes me doubt whether it's even worth continuing... A small position of 20U is quite wise, at least you won't go all-in in one shot. But honestly, I feel the odds will continue to fall, and by then, even 58% won't save you.

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UnruggableChad

· 23h ago

A 58% win rate can reliably break even, which is better than most gamblers.

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FrontRunFighter

· 23h ago

nah bro, 75% odds is basically them extracting the spread... you're literally paying the house tax at that point lmao

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WhaleMistaker

· 23h ago

A 58% win rate is really tough, feeling off and still stubbornly pushing through The odds are getting lower and lower, which is really unmotivating. Better to stay calm for now Testing for a month sounds reliable, much better than blindly adding positions What to say about the 15 yuan profit, at least not losing money is fine Overtrading is the most deadly, I just can't seem to fix this problem Trying out major exchanges is still the safer bet, don't want to fall into another trap A 58% win rate is a bit questionable, should I consider adjusting the strategy?

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WalletInspector

· 23h ago

58% win rate is actually okay, just worried about mental breakdown --- Odds pushed to 75% really have no meaning, I've also encountered this --- A one-month data cycle, this idea is more reliable than random messing around --- 15.4U may not be much, but stability is the key --- The most likely time to fall into a trap is when you're on tilt, I understand that feeling --- Trying small amounts is smart, don't rush to go all in --- A 7 wins and 5 losses ratio is acceptable, the key is whether you can hold on --- Odds trending downward is normal, optimizing strategies is more realistic --- 58% is actually enough, just depends on how long you can stick with it --- Taking a break is wiser, better than fighting it out

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