#比特币期权交割 The $23.7 billion options settlement has arrived this afternoon at 4 PM. Looking at this number, I feel even calmer—because I’ve seen too many predictions of "epic market moves."

Honestly, every time there’s a large settlement, analysts come out saying "volatility will significantly increase" and "a one-sided acceleration will follow the settlement," which sounds impressive. But this is precisely the time when it’s easiest to get caught off guard. The market makers love these moments when "everyone is expecting" something—because when expectations are clear, the profit potential for contrarian moves is greatest.

My experience is: the more "widely accepted" a market move is, the more cautious you should be. When 300,000 contracts are expiring, it can indeed cause volatility, but the direction often defies most people's intuition. Those who leverage up and go all-in on the night before the settlement are nine times out of ten just giving money away.

So my simple advice today: observation beats action. If you haven’t yet established a clear long-term position, this is the time to watch coldly rather than follow the herd driven by expectations. Managing risk and surviving longer are far more important than predicting a single market move. Settlements will happen, but your account’s safety is even more crucial.