ETH is trapped with $480 million in liquidations; dropping below $2955 will trigger a massive liquidation event.

According to the latest news, ETH is currently in a critical risk zone. Based on Coinglass data, if ETH falls below $2,955, the cumulative long liquidation strength on mainstream CEXs will reach $480 million; conversely, if ETH breaks above $3,240, the cumulative short liquidation strength on mainstream CEXs will reach $476 million. ETH’s current price is $3,104.40, exactly between these two liquidation levels, and any short-term fluctuation in either direction could trigger a large-scale liquidation.

What Does Liquidation Strength Mean

Balanced Risk Profile on Both Ends

From the data, the liquidation strength of longs and shorts is nearly equal, both between $476 million and $480 million. This indicates that the market is in an extremely fragile equilibrium. Whether it breaks upward or downward, it could trigger chain reactions of liquidations worth billions of dollars. This symmetrical liquidation strength is technically called a “liquidity trap,” often signaling imminent significant volatility.

Critical Price Levels

Currently, ETH at $3,104.40 is only $149 above the downside liquidation line at $2,955 (a drop of about 4.8%), and $136 below the upside liquidation line at $3,240 (a rise of about 4.4%). This means that a moderate sell-off or rally could trigger liquidations. Looking at the past hour’s data, total liquidations have already reached $35.21 million, with ETH liquidations amounting to $10.84 million, indicating high leverage positions in the market.

Whale Movements Exposing Leverage Risks

Unprecedented Long Positions

According to the latest on-chain data, several large whales are currently highly leveraged long ETH. The “BTC OG Insider Whale” holds positions worth $630 million with an unrealized loss of $5.42 million; “pension-usdt.eth” is long 20,000 ETH with 3x leverage, totaling $62.2 million; “CZ counterparty” holds $177 million in ETH long positions with an unrealized loss of $4.8 million. The liquidation prices for these massive long positions are often near support levels, and once triggered, could cause a cascade effect.

Increasing Unrealized Losses Signal

It is noteworthy that the unrealized losses of multiple whales have been increasing over the past few days. This suggests they are either doubling down on their bets for a rebound or under psychological pressure. For example, “Brother Maji” with 25x leverage has an unrealized loss of $400,000 on long positions, indicating the presence of many extreme leveraged positions in the market. Any volatility triggering liquidations could set off chain reactions.

Key Price Levels and Risk Points

The table shows that ETH is currently positioned between two extreme liquidation points. Breaking through either level could lead to significant liquidity shocks.

Short-term Trend Observation

Recent price movements show typical “oscillating consolidation” characteristics: 0.16% decline in 1 hour, 0.34% increase in 24 hours, but a 1.03% decline over 7 days and a 4.22% decline over 30 days. This pattern of weakening from daily to monthly charts, combined with highly concentrated leveraged longs, suggests that downside risk may outweigh upside opportunities.

Summary

ETH is currently in a highly sensitive price zone, with liquidation strength data clearly outlining the market’s risk profile. The $480 million long liquidation strength is not imaginary; it corresponds to thousands of leveraged positions. If support at $2,955 is lost, chain reactions of liquidations could rapidly push prices lower; on the other hand, breaking resistance at $3,240 could trigger a wave of short covering. Importantly, the increasing unrealized losses of whale holdings imply market participants are doubling down, often a precursor to large volatility. In the short term, whether $2,955 can hold is the key point to watch.