2026-01-11 13:22:02

Let the data speak: Bitcoin's decline in each bear market cycle indeed keeps setting new records.

In 2011, that wave saw Bitcoin drop the most—halving to -93%. From 2013 to 2015, although also severe, the decline was contained within -83%. The 2017 to 2018 cycle repeated the same script, with an -83% drop. Fast forward to 2021 to 2022, the situation started to improve, with the decline narrowing to -76%. And in this current cycle (2025 to present), it has fallen by -32%.

From another perspective, is the market becoming more rational, or are there bigger pitfalls waiting ahead? This is a question worth pondering. Looking at the cycle characteristics, each bear market bottom reshapes investors' perception of risk. The data is here, but the true answer can only be confirmed at the next turning point.

BTC-0,31%

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SleepyArbCat

· 19h ago

Hmm... Nap warning, -32% sounds good, but I bet this isn't the bottom.

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FUDwatcher

· 19h ago

Wow, is -32% really that gradual? It feels a bit strange.

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ContractHunter

· 19h ago

Haha, this wave of decline is still so "gentle," something's not right. Is a big crash brewing?

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PoetryOnChain

· 19h ago

Looking at this data, it seems quite comfortable, with the decline getting smaller each round, but I feel like I'm just fooling myself... A -32% drop isn't really anything, but who can guarantee there won't be a sudden reversal? Market rationality? Ha, let's wait until it breaks new lows. It feels like every time I think the bottom is in, it turns out... you know. A bear market is just repeatedly teaching people lessons, from -93% to -32%, the tuition is really damn expensive. This round of decline has been gentle, but that doesn't mean there aren't big pits ahead. Still need to keep some bullets. I'm getting a bit tired of cycle theory; the key is to look at the macro, not just the data.

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SigmaValidator

· 19h ago

Wait, is the logic that the decline is getting smaller valid? I feel like I might get proven wrong again next time.

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