Recently, DeFi tokens are facing significant pressure, with UNI's situation particularly worth noting.

From a regulatory perspective, opposition to DeFi clauses in crypto legislation continues to intensify. Relevant organizations have publicly voiced their opposition and appeared on mainstream media platforms to call for blocking related legislation. The upcoming bill vote next week also shows Democratic efforts to obstruct, which is generally bearish for the short-term development of the DeFi ecosystem. This compliance pressure is likely to increase further, representing an evident risk factor.

Even more concerning is the supply-side pressure of the token. Currently, UNI has a circulating supply of only 630 million, but there are still 270 million tokens in the treasury that are unreleased. With an annual unlock of 20 million tokens, it takes about 40 days for the market to fully absorb these new supplies. This yearly release rhythm is similar to VC tokens, continuously draining liquidity over the years. Even more extreme is the entire unlock cycle lasting up to 10 years, making UNI's supply pressure more severe than most VC tokens.

The third hidden risk comes from the tokenomics itself. Some market analyses claim an annual deflation rate of only 0.44%, which sounds good, but the white paper explicitly states that the project team can mint up to 2% of tokens annually. This minting right is not fixed; as long as the project team needs funds, they can initiate a vote to activate the minting mechanism. This inflationary power cannot offset the amount unlocked annually, making the balance appear stable on paper but actually quite fragile.

It must be clarified that token burning has become routine in the crypto space and no longer holds much value. Comparing the circulating supply at the 2021 bull market peak with the current 630 million, the difference is stark. Even if the market rebounds in the future, it will be difficult for UNI to revisit its previous all-time high, and the next peak is likely to be significantly lower. The circulating supply data is based on the official confirmed 630 million; the over 800 million shown on-chain includes the unreleased tokens.