Non-farm Payrolls Release Day: Why Do Markets Often Move in the Opposite Direction?

Many traders share a common confusion: even when non-farm data appears to be bullish for a certain asset, the price tends to move in the opposite direction. The reason is not that the market is "wrong," but that it has already priced in the expectations in advance. On non-farm release days, the market essentially becomes a game of "positions versus expectations."

Before the data is released, a large amount of capital has already been positioned based on expectations. Once the data is out, if the results merely "meet expectations," there is a lack of new buying pressure to push the market further, making profit-taking more likely. Especially in trending markets, non-farm data often acts as a trigger for a stage high or low rather than the start of a trend.

Additionally, high volatility is a core characteristic of non-farm days. Algorithmic trading, institutional hedging, and options position adjustments all amplify price swings in a short period, creating numerous "false breakouts." This is why chasing gains or cutting losses during non-farm periods often leads retail traders to be the most vulnerable.

What truly matters is not the first candlestick after the release, but the subsequent market structure changes: Has the trend been broken? Have key support or resistance levels been effectively breached? Is trading volume continuously increasing? If not, the volatility caused by non-farm data is likely just noise.

From this perspective, non-farm data is better suited for "risk management" rather than "aggressive trading." Reducing positions, waiting for emotions to settle, and trading along the larger trend is often much more rational than trying to game the market at the moment of data release. #非农就业数据