#NonfarmPayrollsComing

Nonfarm Payrolls Incoming: Will This Data Decide BTC's Next Move?

The first Nonfarm Payrolls report of 2026 (covering December 2025 data) was released on January 9th. Markets were looking for around 60,000 new jobs added. The actual figure came in softer at approximately 50,000 jobs, missing consensus estimates that ranged from 60K to 66K in various forecasts. This continues the pattern of cooling labor market momentum we started seeing toward the end of last year.

Bitcoin right now is trading in a very narrow range around the $90,500 level. It has been consolidating for days — no real conviction to the upside toward $95K–$100K resistance, and no serious breakdown toward lower supports either. The question on everyone's mind is whether this jobs print (and the market's reaction to it) will be the spark that finally pushes BTC out of this range one way or the other.

Let's break down why NFP matters so much in this environment.

Nonfarm Payrolls is one of the most watched economic indicators because it gives a direct read on the health of the U.S. labor market. The Federal Reserve pays close attention to employment data when deciding on interest rate policy. Strong job growth typically signals a robust economy that can handle higher rates for longer, which strengthens the U.S. dollar and usually creates headwinds for risk assets like stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies. On the flip side, weak or disappointing numbers increase the probability of rate cuts, inject more liquidity into the system, and tend to support higher prices in risk-on assets.

This particular print was clearly on the soft side. Not disastrous, but definitely weaker than what the street was pricing in. Unemployment rate held relatively steady, and average hourly earnings growth remained tame — both of which help keep the inflation narrative under control. The market's initial reaction was mixed: some dollar selling, a bit of dip-buying in equities, and Bitcoin holding its ground without much drama so far.

For crypto specifically, the softer jobs number keeps the door wide open for more dovish Fed commentary in the coming months. If the labor market continues to cool gradually (without tipping into recession territory), the Fed will have more room to deliver cuts in 2026 — potentially starting as early as March or June depending on upcoming inflation and jobs data. Historically, periods of Fed easing cycles have been very favorable for Bitcoin. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, encourage more speculative flows, and boost overall risk appetite.

That said, it's not a one-way street. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) has shown surprising resilience lately, partly because of lingering concerns around inflation re-acceleration, potential tariff policies under the new administration, and global growth divergences. If the market starts interpreting this weak jobs number as "not weak enough" to force aggressive Fed action, or if upcoming revisions paint a less soft picture, we could see some short-term pressure on BTC back toward the $85K–$87K area. Technical traders are watching that zone closely as the next meaningful support.

On the bullish side, the macro backdrop still has plenty of tailwinds. Regulatory sentiment in the U.S. has improved significantly compared to previous years. Institutional inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs remain steady. The post-halving supply dynamics from 2024 are still working their way through the market. And sentiment overall is far from euphoric — which is actually healthy at this stage of the cycle.

My personal view is that this NFP release is meaningful for the short-to-medium term, but it is unlikely to be the single decisive factor that determines Bitcoin's major trend direction in 2026. It will probably contribute to increased volatility over the next few days and weeks, as traders position around the new information. For active traders, this is a period full of setups on both sides. For longer-term holders, the key is to avoid getting shaken out by noise and stay focused on the bigger structural changes that have been building for months.

The range trade around $90K could continue for a bit longer until we get more clarity from upcoming CPI data, Fed speakers, or fresh catalysts. But the path of least resistance still feels higher if the Fed stays on a gradual easing path and risk appetite holds up.

What are you expecting from here? Do you think we break out toward new highs soon, or are we headed for more sideways chop and maybe a deeper pullback first? Drop your thoughts — always interesting to hear different perspectives.