Having spent years in the Web3 storage risk control sector, I have seen many projects rapidly fall from grace amid technological hype and capital enthusiasm. To be honest, most of the time it's not that the technology is lacking, but that the business logic cannot withstand scrutiny—profit models drift in the air, risk hedging is virtually nonexistent, and ultimately they become pawns in short-term capital games.

When Walrus recently came into view, it certainly made a splash. Backed by Mysten Labs, a $140 million private placement, and valued at $2 billion, the market's most discussed topics remain its RedStuff technology and RWA ecosystem prospects. However, from a commercial risk control perspective, the risks behind these flashy numbers deserve a thorough review.

**The Paradox of Technology Monetization and Scaling**

Walrus's technology indeed has barriers to entry. But being technically strong does not equate to a clear business model. The key issue is: moving from laboratory experiments to large-scale application involves bridging the gap of costs and risks. Storage services may seem simple, but in reality, they must address engineering challenges such as network fluctuations, data redundancy, and node incentives. Leading technology can ensure product differentiation but does not guarantee sustainable profitability—especially when competitors quickly follow suit.

**The Tension Between Ecosystem Binding and Independent Operation**

Mysten Labs' incubator status is both an advantage and a hidden risk. The advantage is obvious—leveraging a mature ecosystem and receiving resource support. The hidden risk is that once the project needs to operate independently, conflicts of interest with the parent company may surface. Ecosystem projects are often constrained by strategic adjustments of the parent ecosystem, which can directly impact the project's autonomous decision-making and long-term independence.

**Regulatory Enablement and Cost Pressures**

RWA scenarios sound appealing, but their realization depends on passing regulatory scrutiny. Different regions have vastly different rules regarding data storage and privacy protection. For a project to truly implement RWA applications, it must face complex compliance costs. This is not a small expense, and it only gets heavier over time.

**Balancing Short-term Traffic and Long-term Value**

From a fundraising perspective, projects may face the pressure to—prove business viability in the short term while also accumulating enough long-term users and ecosystem support. These two goals often conflict. Focusing on short-term metrics may harm ecosystem health, while long-term planning can be rushed by capital markets. How to strike this balance determines whether the project can survive long enough.

**Key Focus Points**

Walrus's true value does not lie in how advanced its technology is, but in whether it can establish a sustainable business closed-loop. The $2 billion valuation reflects market expectations, but whether these expectations can be realized depends on whether the project can find a balance among technological advantages, ecosystem synergy, compliance costs, and user growth.

Currently, the project's financing and valuation are generally healthy, but the replicability of its business model and risk hedging capabilities still require further data validation. If the project team can produce real customer cases and stable revenue growth within the next 12-18 months, it will confirm that the initial investment logic was sound. Otherwise, even the best technology may be wasted.