BTC daily chart still looks the same old way, fluctuating around 90,000 yuan, with narrow-range oscillations and no decisive breakout. Whether it's a bull or a bear, this level will eventually see a significant trend movement.

How to interpret the technicals? After the weekly MACD death cross, the histogram bars are gradually narrowing, indicating that momentum is weakening but hasn't truly reversed. The RSI hovers around 45, showing no oversold signals nor strong bullishness, indicating a neutral to weak state.

The bottom support is around 88k—this area overlaps with the lower channel boundary, last year's dense liquidation zone, and the 200-day moving average support. Imagine how much capital is waiting here. Once broken, there's a high probability of a quick drop to 84k-85k. The resistance above is between 94k and 95k, where previous highs and the 50-day moving average cluster. To confirm a rebound, it must surpass this hurdle.

Now, looking at the US stock market logic. The AI boom is still ongoing. The Fed cut interest rates three times last year, but the market now expects only 1-2 cuts in 2026, with the futures market even more dovish, only pricing in cuts in April and September. Liquidity remains tight.

If US stocks continue to oscillate higher, BTC as a risk asset will definitely follow suit, but not as wildly as last year. Conversely, if the AI bubble pressure suddenly explodes along with rising tariff risks, causing a US stock correction, BTC will likely fall again in tandem.

The ETF data looks painful: by the end of 2025, there was a bleeding of $4.5 billion in just two months, and in January this year, outflows resumed with over $1 billion flowing out in recent days. But BlackRock's IBIT is still aggressively raising funds, with nearly $100 million inflow in a single week. What does this reflect? Institutions are buying more as prices fall, while retail and weak hands are selling at a loss. This is the real bull market signal—money isn't leaving; it's just shifting to stronger holders.

Next three months probability distribution:

Most likely (65%): Bottoming between 88-90 over 1 to 4 weeks, then rebounding to test the psychological levels of 94k to 100k, with bottom oscillations rising.

Less likely (25%): Direct drop below 88k, then declining to around 84k. This depends on US stocks falling simultaneously or ETF bleeding continuing, but it could be an opportunity to add positions.

Optimistic scenario (10%): Rapid breakthrough above 95k and heading towards 105k+, requiring a sudden influx of large capital or an unexpected dovish move from the Fed.

In short, this is the hell mode within a bull market. Many are scared, but the big money is still waiting for everyone to be scared enough before entering. Don't rush to go all-in, nor get scared and cut losses at a few points.