Bitcoin has been consolidating since January 6th, hovering around 90,000 with repeated fluctuations. Looking at the hourly chart, the bulls' moving averages are already in position, currently stuck at the 2x Vegas level. But on the four-hour chart, the situation is different; the bearish arrangement is clear, and the EMA200 is being pressed down hard.

I still lean towards a bullish outlook. The 97,000 to 98,000 range has been my target all along, and that judgment hasn't changed. The issue lies in the macro environment. Recently, there have been some bearish signals, and I expect the probability of rate cuts in January to be revised downward. If this development continues, the top is very likely to appear a week before the FOMC meeting, and even before the official FOMC meeting, the market has already started to move downward.

There are two possible paths forward:

**Path One**: Surge to 97-98K first, then pull back before the FOMC. If the FOMC does not cut rates on that day, it confirms bearish expectations, and the decline will accelerate, with breaking below 80K not being a dream.

**Path Two**: Unexpected rate cut by the FOMC, causing a sudden reversal upward, pushing the price to around 102-107K. But this would only be a mid-term rebound; by mid to late February, it would still need to go down again, eventually breaking below 80K.

Both paths ultimately point below 80K, but the storylines in between differ. The FOMC timing will be the real turning point.