The expectation of interest rate cuts is heating up again. According to the latest market data, traders are heavily positioning for a scenario where the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield drops to 4%, reflecting strong market expectations for a loosening cycle. Meanwhile, within the Federal Reserve decision-making circle, there is a divergence in perceptions of the rate cut path, with both sides reaching a ten-year high in opposition—one advocating for rapid rate cuts, the other insisting on cautious observation.

What impact does this divergence have on the crypto market? Research from leading industry institutions generally points in the same direction: by 2026, the Federal Reserve is highly likely to maintain a loose stance, ending quantitative tightening, and the market will experience abundant liquidity supply. The key point here—if the pace of rate cuts aligns with fiscal stimulus, as the most liquidity-sensitive asset class, cryptocurrencies could enter a new upward cycle.

But the story is not over. What truly determines the market trend is the "nature" of this rate cut cycle. Is it a mild, preventive adjustment for the economy, or a rapid shift driven by the need to respond to recession risks? The former could bring a gentle upward "slow bull," while the latter may easily evolve into emotional, intense volatility.

Market fluctuations are expected, but one eternal logic always holds: regardless of how the macro environment evolves, the market’s reliance on information, knowledge, and transparent decision-making will only increase. That’s why education within the Web3 community is so crucial—it provides participants with tools and cognitive frameworks to make judgments amid uncertainty.

Simple advice: stay alert to opportunities, but also reserve risk buffers. Buckle up and be prepared for any plot twists that liquidity cycles might bring.