RIVER has plummeted from its all-time high of 23.87, dropping over 17% in 24 hours, and is now hovering around 12.66 with continued weakness. This cliff-like sell-off clearly indicates that the main force has completed its high-level distribution— the previous surge of enthusiasm is completely gone.

The contract market shows this even more clearly. During the sharp decline, the total open interest spiked and then quickly fell back, and the total value of open positions also shrank, indicating that the main force was not taking orders at low levels but was using retail investors' bottom-fishing enthusiasm to complete the final round of distribution. The long-short ratio of large traders is quite interesting; accounts with no positions and total holdings have been suppressing the bulls, but what about retail investors? They are all piling into long positions in the 12-15 range to bottom-fish, but each rebound phase is met with heavy selling by the main force, with the volume of distribution increasing each time.

In the short term, the price is likely to attempt a rebound in the 15-16 range, possibly even testing the 24-hour high near 16.64. After all, the 15-minute MACD still shows some rebound momentum, plus the influx of bottom-fishing funds, making this rebound quite attractive. But the key point is— this rebound lacks staying power. Once the rebound reaches its peak, it will be the moment for the bears to really take control. Currently, this rebound zone is actually the golden opportunity to gradually build short positions. The closer to 16, the wider the profit margin for shorting.