2026-01-09 18:34:04

The prediction market betting on the total fundraising amount of Ranger Finance ICO has exploded today. The Yes side is rallying across the board, with the probabilities for key price levels at 15M, 20M, and 30M all exceeding 94%, indicating a very strong market consensus. Currently, Ranger's actual fundraising amount is only 4.44M.

Interestingly, this scenario has occurred before during the ICO cycle of a major project. The fundraising curves of these popular projects typically show slow accumulation in the early stages, followed by a sudden acceleration later on. Prediction market participants are clearly betting with real money—they believe Ranger will eventually surpass these thresholds.

From the order book, it appears that the market is pricing in this expectation in advance. The question is whether this expectation will be fulfilled, which depends on the subsequent fundraising progress. The gap is still significant at this stage, but if the project team accelerates their fundraising efforts, this probability could really continue to rise.

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PessimisticLayer

· 12h ago

94% consensus? Brother, that's outrageous, it feels like everyone is betting on the same direction. --- 4.44M to 20M is still a long way to go, this time you really have to go all in. --- It's the same old trick, slow in the beginning and fast later, they always play it this way. --- The prediction market money is indeed smart, but it can also easily create bubbles. --- Let's wait and see the follow-up funding pace, don't get led by the market movements. --- Is this probability real? It feels like someone is hyping it up. --- I'm just worried that the final funding gets stuck at around 10 million, then this betting game will be awkward.

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FromMinerToFarmer

· 12h ago

94% is way too outrageous, this is the gambler's mentality. Really aiming for 30M? It's only 4.44M now. Such a big gap and still so optimistic, I truly admire you.

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DiamondHands

· 12h ago

94% chance of Yes? Is this gambling or consensus? Feels a bit uncertain. --- 4.44M jumps to 30M, that's quite a difference, but who says it can't surge later? --- Funds are pre-priced, in other words, betting on Ranger's strong momentum, which is a bit exciting. --- I've seen this pattern before: cold early on, then explosive later. It all depends on whether the project team is willing to give a push. --- Can it follow the historical pattern? It also depends on the funding progress; otherwise, 94% is meaningless. --- Fire is fire. I just want to know if this wave can reach 30M. It's too tempting.

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GasWhisperer

· 12h ago

yo the 94% probability spike on ranger feels like watching mempool congestion before a flash crash tbh... market's pricing in the late-stage acceleration narrative but ngl, 4.44M to 15M+ is a wild gap to close. feels more like hopium than actual fee optimization imo

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BlockImposter

· 12h ago

A 94% chance of telling the truth is a bit outrageous. Only 4.44M can push it this high... How much capital needs to enter the market to reach this consensus? Is it real or fake?

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