BTC is caught between two liquidation "danger zones": falling below $86,170 or breaking above $95,088 will trigger $1.2 billion in liquidations.

Bitcoin is at a delicate equilibrium point. According to the latest liquidation data, if the price breaks below $86,170, the cumulative long liquidation strength on mainstream exchanges will reach $1.229 billion; conversely, if it breaks above $95,088, the short liquidation strength will also reach $1.225 billion. Currently, BTC is fluctuating around $90,546, which means the market is within an over $8,900 range, where both bulls and bears face significant liquidation risks.

How Dangerous Are the “Liquidation Danger Zones”?

Based on Coinglass data, the current market liquidation distribution is highly symmetrical:

This symmetrical liquidation strength distribution reflects a key phenomenon: market participants have accumulated large leveraged positions at these two price levels. Once the price breaks in either direction, it triggers not just simple liquidations but potentially a “liquidity wave”—a cascade of forced liquidations that further push the price in the same direction.

Market sentiment leans bearish

From the latest market signals, bears seem to have the upper hand. According to data:

• Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been in negative premium (-0.0837%) for three consecutive days, indicating strong selling pressure in the US market and a decline in investor risk appetite
• Funding rates on major CEX and DEX platforms show a generally bearish outlook for Bitcoin and altcoins
• In the past 24 hours, the entire network experienced $287 million in liquidations, with $241 million long liquidated, clearly showing an imbalance between longs and shorts

These signals together create downward pressure on the price. When market sentiment is bearish and funding rates are negative, the vulnerability of long positions is amplified.

Why is the number $1.229 billion?

The liquidation strength chart does not show the exact number of contracts pending liquidation but rather the significance of each liquidation cluster relative to nearby clusters. Simply put, a liquidation strength of $1.229 billion means that once the price hits $86,170, the scale of liquidations at this level will have the strongest impact on the market. This impact can trigger more stop-loss orders, creating a “bulldozer” effect that drives prices downward.

The Reference Value of Historical Data

Review of recent liquidation data evolution:

• Jan 7: Dropped below $91,000 - Longs liquidated $621 million; broke above $94,000 - Shorts liquidated $465 million
• Jan 8: Dropped below $90,000 - Longs liquidated $1.07 billion; broke above $92,000 - Shorts liquidated $417 million
• Jan 10: Dropped below $86,170 - Longs liquidated $1.229 billion; broke above $95,088 - Shorts liquidated $1.225 billion

This evolution shows that over time, liquidation strength has been accumulating and redistributing. The risk of long liquidations is increasing (from $621 million to $1.229 billion), indicating more long positions are being accumulated at lower prices.

Summary

Bitcoin is like a tightly stretched rubber band, at the most tense moment of bulls versus bears. Market sentiment is bearish, and funding rates are negative, but the symmetrical liquidation strength on both sides indicates that both parties are positioning within this critical range.

The core risk point is clear: a downward break below $86,170 will trigger $1.2 billion+ in long liquidations, potentially causing a chain reaction; an upward break above $95,088 will trigger $1.2 billion+ in short liquidations, also leading to a short squeeze. Every sharp fluctuation within this over $8,900 range could trigger a liquidation wave.

For traders, respecting risk is paramount in this environment. Leveraged trading at such nodes is high-risk behavior; strict stop-loss placement and cautious position management are the keys to survival.