The freshly released US December non-farm payroll data was a bit disappointing again—only 50,000 new jobs added, far below the market expectation of 70,000. Even more concerning is that the data for the previous two months was revised downward, directly reflecting a clear slowdown in US employment growth.

Although the unemployment rate slightly decreased to 4.4%, this figure is somewhat misleading. The main reason is limited layoffs rather than a sudden surge in hiring; instead, more and more people are choosing to exit the labor force. Job growth is mainly concentrated in the leisure, hospitality, and healthcare sectors, while retail, construction, and manufacturing are contracting, which is not a good sign.

Wage growth was in line with expectations, increasing by 0.3% month-over-month, with no surprises. Economists generally expect a more challenging job market in 2026, with tighter employment opportunities and slower wage growth. Additionally, long-term unemployment and part-time employment had already increased significantly in 2025.

From a trader’s perspective, most are betting that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at the January FOMC meeting. What impact will this have on the short-term trends of BTC and ETH? The market direction still needs to be observed.