According to CME Federal Funds Futures data, there has been a clear shift in market expectations for Federal Reserve policy following the release of the non-farm payroll report.

The most intuitive example is January— the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut dropped from 11.6% to 2.8%, while the probability of holding rates steady surged to 97.2%. This indicates that the market has almost completely abandoned expectations of a rate cut in January.

Looking further ahead, the outlook remains cautious. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is only 32.3% (down from 35.8%), while the probability of no change has increased to 66.8%. Even more extreme, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut has fallen from 3.7% to 0.9%— this shows that the market's expectation of the Fed significantly easing policy in the near term has essentially disappeared.

The logic behind the data is clear: strong non-farm payroll data has alleviated concerns about an economic recession, and investors' eager anticipation of rate cuts has dissipated accordingly. This has a tangible impact on the crypto market— every shift in interest rate policy directly affects the liquidity of risk assets and investor sentiment.