Market predictions are once again causing a stir. U.S. New York State Assemblyman Ritchie Torres introduced a new bill last Friday—the "2026 Financial Prediction Market Public Integrity Act." The proposal has already gained support from 30 Democratic lawmakers, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

So, what does this bill aim to do? It seeks to prohibit elected officials, political appointees, administrative staff, and congressional personnel from using insider information obtained through their positions to bet on government policies, actions, or political outcomes in prediction markets. It sounds serious, but there are underlying events that triggered this.

Recently, a prediction market participant bet on Venezuelan former President Nicolás Maduro stepping down before the end of the month on Polymarket, earning $400,000 directly. This incident immediately sparked public debate, with market observers questioning—could someone be using insider information for insider trading?

Ritchie Torres made his stance very clear: this loophole must be closed. If government insiders can profit from prediction markets, it could easily lead to conflicts of interest—pushing certain policies for profit, which would severely harm public interests.

Currently, the bill is still seeking support from Republicans, and whether it will become law remains to be seen. But this incident indeed highlights an important issue: as prediction markets become more mainstream, regulatory frameworks must keep pace.