30 Democratic lawmakers jointly support anti-insider trading bill, predicting increased political risks for the platform

The U.S. Democratic Party’s stance on regulating prediction markets is shifting. On January 10th, local time, 30 Democrats, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, publicly supported a new legislative proposal aimed directly at political gambling and insider trading on prediction platforms. The bill, titled the “2026 Financial Prediction Market Public Integrity Act,” was formally introduced by New York State Congressman Richie Torres, reflecting the increasing concern within U.S. politics about the risks associated with prediction markets.

Background: From $400,000 Gambling to Legislation Proposal

Key details triggering the event

The introduction of this bill did not come out of nowhere. Previously, a controversial gambling incident occurred on the prediction platform Polymarket. An account bet that former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would “step down” by the end of the month and profited $400,000. This transaction immediately raised concerns about insider trading, as such information is typically held within political circles.

This incident became the final straw. U.S. political circles realized that without regulation, such gambling based on non-public information could continue and even evolve into systemic risk.

Core intent of the bill

The core goal of the “2026 Financial Prediction Market Public Integrity Act” is clear: to prevent elected officials from engaging in politically related gambling on prediction markets. This means:

• Politicians cannot use non-public information they possess to trade on prediction markets
• Prediction platforms need to establish mechanisms to prevent such trades
• Violations will face legal consequences

Political Significance: Bipartisan Consensus or Party Divisions

Democratic Party’s stance is clear

The support from 30 Democrats indicates that this is not the idea of a radical faction but a broad consensus within the Democratic Party. From heavyweight figures like former House Speakers to ordinary members, there is agreement on the need for regulation of prediction markets. Such unified stance is uncommon in U.S. politics.

Republican stance remains to be seen

The quick news did not mention the Republican position, which is quite interesting. On issues of crypto and financial regulation, the two parties often have differing views. As a relatively new financial tool, prediction markets may also face partisan differences.

Impact on Prediction Platforms and Markets

Direct effects

If the bill ultimately passes, prediction platforms like Polymarket will face:

• The need to establish identity verification and trading monitoring systems to identify political figures
• Possible restrictions on trading volume or participant types in politically related markets
• Stricter compliance requirements

Indirect effects

This bill also reflects a broader regulatory trend. U.S. political circles are increasingly focused on crypto and on-chain finance, with prediction markets being just one entry point. More regulatory proposals targeting crypto finance may emerge in the future.

Future Outlook

Whether this bill will ultimately pass remains uncertain. While Democratic support is important, in the U.S. Congress, any bill requires sufficient bipartisan backing to become law. Based on current information, the Republican stance is still unclear.

Personal opinion: The speed of this bill’s progression and its final outcome largely depend on how “hot” prediction markets are in U.S. politics. If similar insider trading incidents continue, the likelihood of the bill passing increases. Conversely, if these are seen as isolated events, the bill might be pushed aside by other issues.

Summary

The U.S. Democratic Party’s attitude toward regulating prediction markets is shifting from cautious observation to proactive support. The joint backing of 30 Democrats indicates that preventing politicians from exploiting insider information for prediction market gambling has become a political consensus. The introduction of the “2026 Financial Prediction Market Public Integrity Act” signals that prediction platforms may face stricter regulatory frameworks.

Key points: First, this reflects the U.S. political community’s concern over prediction market risks; second, insider trading risks have moved from theory to reality; third, prediction platforms need to prepare for stricter compliance; fourth, the final outcome of this bill still depends on subsequent bipartisan attitudes. For the crypto industry, this also signals that financial innovation in politically sensitive areas is being brought into regulatory focus.