Last week, the US stock market performed steadily. Although December's non-farm payroll data was released, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy direction remained unchanged. The good news is that traders are now paying more attention to an important Supreme Court ruling—regarding the legality of the comprehensive tariff policy introduced by the President last April.

Looking at the labor data, the situation the market faces is much more balanced than imagined. A macro multi-asset strategist at a major financial institution pointed out that the latest employment figures send a mixed signal: the economy is indeed functioning normally, but not so strong as to require the market to completely revise its view on monetary policy. This "lukewarm" state is actually favorable for the stock market—it neither triggers the Fed's hawkish stance nor undermines economic resilience.

The real uncertainty lies in the tariff legality ruling. If the Supreme Court ultimately determines that the tariff policy exceeded its authority, market reactions could be quite intense. From a stock perspective, corporate profit margins are expected to improve, and the burden on consumers will ease accordingly, which is undoubtedly positive for the stock market. However, the bond market may face pressure—once such stimulus policies are approved, the pace of Fed rate cuts is likely to become more complicated, and government deficits could further expand.

Overall, both US stocks and bonds have been waiting for this key signal. Regardless of the ruling outcome, the market's next direction will be re-adjusted accordingly.