Hundred-billion-dollar tariff case ruling this week: Why is the crypto market holding its breath

The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to make a final ruling on January 14th (this Wednesday) regarding the legality of the Trump administration’s global tariff policies. This is not only a legal case but also a market risk event involving hundreds of billions of dollars in capital flows. According to predictive market data, the probability of the tariffs being overturned has exceeded 70%, but this high level of uncertainty is reshaping global asset pricing logic, with the crypto market being the most affected.

Core Disputes in the Tariff Case

In January 2025, the Trump administration invoked the (International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA)) to implement additional tariffs via executive order. The U.S. Federal Circuit Court of Appeals and the International Trade Court subsequently ruled that this approach constituted executive overreach — while the president is granted authority to take economic measures in emergencies, he cannot implement comprehensive tariff actions.

The Trump administration then appealed to the Supreme Court, attempting to overturn the lower courts’ rulings. U.S. Treasury Secretary warned that if the ruling is delayed until June 2026, the tariffs already collected could reach $750 billion to $1 trillion, and refunding these tariffs “could cause significant chaos.”

Diverging Market Expectations

According to Watcher.Guru data, the probability of the Supreme Court ruling the tariffs illegal is 77%. Bitunix analysts note that even if tariffs are overturned, the White House still holds multiple legal tools, and the trade friction drama is far from over.

Two Market Scenarios

Scenario 1: Tariffs Overturned (Higher Probability)

If the Supreme Court finds the tariff policy unconstitutional, potential refunds of hundreds of billions of dollars will pressure U.S. finances. In the short term, this will reinforce market expectations of the Federal Reserve shifting towards easing earlier, easing inflation fears, and putting downward pressure on the dollar. For the crypto market, a weaker dollar generally supports safe-haven assets like Bitcoin, but this positive effect could be offset by rapid shifts in market sentiment.

Scenario 2: Tariffs Maintained (Lower Probability but Deep Impact)

If the Supreme Court upholds the tariffs, the dilemma between inflation and growth will persist. Rising corporate costs and suppressed consumption will push prices higher. In this “stagflation” environment, the hedging value of gold and Bitcoin will be re-priced, and volatility will significantly increase.

Why the Crypto Market Is Highly Sensitive

The impact of this ruling on the crypto market is not through direct trading relationships but via macroeconomic transmission:

• Inflation Expectations: Determine real interest rate trends, affecting risk asset attractiveness
• Dollar Movement: A weaker dollar benefits dollar-denominated assets like Bitcoin
• Policy Predictability: Market fears of policy black swans can itself drive volatility

Bitunix analysts summarize that this is not just a single policy event but a major test of “policy predictability.” The crypto market is highly sensitive to such macro variables, and the tariff ruling will directly amplify the volatility of Bitcoin and mainstream crypto assets.

Cumulative Effect: Non-Farm Payroll Report Released on the Same Day

Adding complexity, the U.S. December 2025 Non-Farm Payroll report will also be released on January 10th (note: recent reports mention the ruling might be announced on January 9th). The simultaneous release of two major data points will create a double shock for the market.

Strong employment data could reinforce the Fed’s resolve to maintain high interest rates, offsetting the positive impact of the tariff overturn; weak employment data could strengthen expectations of rate cuts, adding to the risks of maintaining tariffs.

Summary

The U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling on the tariffs has become the most important risk event in the market this week. Although predictive markets show a more than 70% chance of tariffs being overturned, this high level of uncertainty itself is driving market volatility higher. For crypto investors, this is not an event to “bet on the direction” but a risk window requiring close attention to macro variable transmission. Regardless of the ruling, subsequent policy responses (the White House’s “Plan B”) may be equally important. This weekend, the market will hold its breath, and by January 14th, this anticipation will translate into real price movements.