$65,000 becomes a life-and-death line? Fidelity executive questions the Bitcoin bull market consensus

Fidelity Global Macro Director Jurrien Timmer recently published an article questioning the market’s “bull market has ended” narrative, proposing an opposite view: Bitcoin’s trajectory resembles an S-curve of internet development rather than the power-law curve commonly believed by the market. This perspective is particularly noteworthy amid the current increasing divergence among institutional funds.

Fidelity Executive’s Core Viewpoints

S-curve vs. Power-law Curve: The Fundamental Difference Between Two Growth Models

Jurrien Timmer believes that understanding Bitcoin’s future movement hinges on identifying which growth curve it follows. The differences between the two models are significant:

A power-law curve implies continuous exponential growth, with prices constantly reaching new highs. An S-curve, on the other hand, indicates growth passing through three stages: slow initial phase, accelerated middle phase, and slowdown in the later stage. Based on this logic, Bitcoin may have already completed the middle acceleration phase and is about to enter the slowdown phase.

$65,000: A Potential Key Support Level

If the Fidelity executive’s judgment is correct, the key data point is as follows: if Bitcoin enters a consolidation phase within the next year, the power-law trend line might be closer to $65,000. This level is not only a technical support but could also become Bitcoin’s “life or death line.” Of course, he also admits that this may not happen within the next year.

Market Reality: Increasing Institutional Divergence

The True Signal Behind ETF Data

At the time of Fidelity’s viewpoint, the market is experiencing clear divergence among institutional funds. According to the latest data, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen consecutive large outflows recently:

On January 7th, a net outflow of $486 million, with Fidelity’s FBTC ETF experiencing a net outflow of $248 million, and BlackRock’s IBIT ETF a net outflow of $130 million. Then on January 8th, another net outflow of $398 million. Such scale of outflows reflects not long-term bearishness but rather institutions taking profits and managing risks at high levels.

The Bullish Voices Are Equally Strong

On the other hand, there are also strong bullish signals. Bank of America recently announced offering clients a 1%-4% Bitcoin allocation recommendation, effectively opening the door for institutional participation at Wall Street level. BlackRock executives have also publicly stated that “Bitcoin is still in the early stages.”

This creates an interesting contrast: on one side, profit-taking outflows; on the other, continuous new institutional entry.

Key Price Levels and Trend Judgments

The Significance of the Current Level

Bitcoin’s current price is around $91,110, still some distance from the $65,000 support level mentioned by Fidelity. But this distance itself highlights the issue: if the S-curve theory holds, the correction from the current level down to $65,000 might be the “consolidation phase” the market needs to go through.

Two Possible Market Scenarios

If Bitcoin continues along the S-curve, the possible scenario is: in the short term, oscillating within the $90,000-$93,000 range, gradually digesting profit-taking, and eventually testing lower levels. However, if structural bullishness prevails, the current ETF outflows might only be a short-term correction, with new funds stepping in at lower prices.

Summary

While Fidelity’s skepticism contrasts with mainstream market views, it is not alarmist. The S-curve theory has a logical basis, and the $65,000 figure provides a concrete reference point for the market. The current market reality is that internal institutional opinions on Bitcoin are clearly divided—some are taking profits, others remain optimistic. This divergence itself reflects a maturing market. The key moving forward is not about whose view is more correct, but whether Bitcoin can hold steady at the current high levels, or whether it will enter the consolidation phase described by Fidelity. In the short term, watch the psychological threshold of $90,000; in the long term, observe whether the inflow of new institutional funds is sufficient to offset profit-taking pressures.