Bitcoin halving countdown: How the quadrennial supply shock is changing the market

What is a Bitcoin Halving? A Quick Overview of the Core Concept

Bitcoin halving is one of the most important cyclical events in the cryptocurrency world. Simply put, approximately every four years, the reward miners receive for mining new blocks automatically halves.

This is not a human decision but a built-in mechanism preset by Satoshi Nakamoto in the Bitcoin code. About every 210,000 blocks, the system automatically triggers a halving—no voting, no negotiation, no manual intervention needed.

Main Function: Control inflation and enhance scarcity. Unlike central banks that can print money at will, Bitcoin’s cap is firmly fixed at 21 million coins. Halving is a tool to gradually slow down new coin supply.

A Brief History of Halvings: From 50 BTC to 3.125 BTC

Bitcoin has experienced 4 halving events so far:

Each halving is not just a numeric change; it signifies a systemic recalibration of the entire ecosystem.

The first halving in 2012: From obscurity to prominence

At that time, Bitcoin was less than a year old (by market perception), priced at only $12. The halving cut the block reward in half, but did not trigger panic selling—in fact, within six months, Bitcoin’s price surged to $130, nearly a 10x increase. While not solely due to halving, reduced supply was definitely a bullish catalyst.

The second halving in 2016: From fringe asset to institutional focus

Back then, Bitcoin was trading around $650. After the halving, the price rose to $900 within six months. More importantly, this halving was followed by Bitcoin’s legendary 2017 bull run, reaching a high of $20,000. Institutional interest grew, and market perception shifted dramatically.

The third halving in 2020: Resilience amid the COVID-19 black swan

This halving occurred during the global COVID-19 pandemic, with macroeconomic chaos. On the day of halving, Bitcoin was priced at $8,821. Despite extreme uncertainty, the price rose to $15,700 in six months, then continued upward, hitting a record high of $69,000 after 18 months. The market demonstrated deep confidence in the halving logic.

The fourth halving in 2024: A new test in a mature market

The latest halving took place on April 20, 2024, with Bitcoin at $63,652. This time, the environment was vastly different—massive institutional inflows, the recent approval of a US spot ETF, and a more rational regulatory stance. The halving occurs in a more mature, transparent market, changing the traditional supply shock dynamics.

Why Do Halvings Push Prices Up? Classic Supply and Demand Principles

Direct Impact on Supply Side

Taking the 2024 halving as an example:

Before halving: About 900 BTC created daily
After halving: About 450 BTC created daily

This is a sudden 50% reduction in new supply. In economics, this is called a “supply shock”—the same demand facing less supply inevitably drives prices higher.

Of course, this assumes demand does not decline significantly at the same time. Historically, each halving has been accompanied by increased media attention, FOMO among investors, and often increased demand.

The astonishing regularity of historical price performance

Post-halving, Bitcoin’s gains have been remarkable:

• 2012 halving: +9,520% within 365 days
• 2016 halving: +3,402% within 518 days
• 2020 halving: +652% within 335 days

These figures seem to follow a pattern, but they may not apply identically to 2024—because the base has changed. As an asset’s price rises from a few thousand dollars to sixty thousand, the percentage impact of the same supply reduction naturally diminishes.

But correlation ≠ causation, don’t be fooled by simple logic

While the correlation between halving and price increases is strong, it does not mean halving automatically causes prices to rise. The real drivers are:

• Market sentiment and expectations (speculative trading months in advance)
• Increased institutional adoption
• Regulatory environment improvements
• Macroeconomic factors (QE in 2020, rate cut expectations in 2024)

In other words, halving provides a narrative framework, but the actual price movement is driven by human expectations and behaviors.

The Double-Edged Sword for Miners

Profitability Challenges

Halving is a severe test for miners. Their revenue is cut in half overnight, while costs like electricity, hardware depreciation, and labor remain unchanged.

Result: Less efficient mining operations are forced to shut down, and network hash rate may temporarily decline. This is a natural selection process—only the most efficient miners with the cheapest electricity can survive.

Driving technological innovation and energy efficiency

However, halving also pushes the industry toward progress. Miners need to buy more efficient chips, find cheaper electricity, and optimize cooling systems. This accelerates ASIC chip iterations and promotes renewable energy use in mining.

In the long run, price appreciation is the ultimate salvation

Historically, Bitcoin’s price tends to rise within months to a year after halving. When prices go up, even with fewer rewards, miners’ fiat earnings can stay the same or grow. This creates a self-reinforcing cycle.

When Is the Next Halving? Roadmap for the Future

The 5th halving (around 2028)

Expected around April 17, 2028, at block height 1,050,000, with the reward dropping from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC.

Since Bitcoin produces a block every 10 minutes, the exact date may vary by ±1-2 days, but the timing remains relatively stable.

Longer-term schedule

• 2032: Reward → 0.78125 BTC
• 2036: Reward → 0.390625 BTC
• 2040: Reward → 0.1953125 BTC

This process will continue until around 2140, when the last Bitcoin is mined. At that point, the 21 million cap will be fully reached.

What happens when all Bitcoins are mined?

This is a profound question. After the last Bitcoin is mined, miners will no longer receive block rewards. Their income will entirely depend on transaction fees.

Users will need to pay fees for each transaction, which will be collected by miners as incentives to maintain network security. A key assumption is: Bitcoin’s usage will be sufficiently high, and transaction fees will be attractive enough to keep miners engaged.

If Bitcoin becomes a global payment standard or store of value, even low transaction fees could sustain a robust mining network—especially if future technologies like the Lightning Network or sidechains mature.

Will Halving Change Your Holdings? What Investors Should Know

Common misconceptions debunked

Misconception 1: Halving will decrease the value of my existing Bitcoin
Wrong. Halving only affects new Bitcoin issuance, not the 20 million+ already in circulation. Your 1 BTC remains 1 BTC.

Misconception 2: Halving will inevitably lead to price increases
Not necessarily. Halving is just one supply-side factor. If market sentiment collapses, regulations tighten, or technical issues arise, prices can still fall.

Misconception 3: The effects of halving are immediate
Usually not. Historically, price reactions lag by months or even a year. Markets often start pricing in halving 3-6 months beforehand, and the day of halving can sometimes see technical corrections.

Misconception 4: Halving remains effective in mature markets
It can be, but its impact may diminish. When asset size is large and institutional investors are rational, supply factors may have less influence.

Comparing three investment strategies

Long-term holding (most common)
Regular small purchases (DCA), holding for years. Belief in Bitcoin’s scarcity story, ignoring short-term volatility. Lowest risk but requires strong psychological resilience.

Halving cycle trading
Start increasing positions 1-3 months before halving, sell near the peak 2-3 months after. Requires precise market timing—challenging even for professionals.

Diversified portfolio
Hold Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other major coins, or hedge with futures. During increased volatility around halving, diversify risk.

Will the Halving Narrative Always Be Effective?

The 2024 halving differs significantly from previous ones. Back then:

• Institutional capital had just entered (Bitcoin spot ETF approved)
• Market perception was still emerging (not a fringe asset)
• Regulatory stance was more rational (not outright suppression)
• Macro environment was complex (interest rates, inflation, geopolitical tensions)

Some analysts believe that as Bitcoin’s market cap grows, the marginal impact of halving will weaken. After all, increasing supply by 450 BTC over 200 days in a $1.3 trillion market has limited influence.

Others argue that scarcity logic is eternal. As long as demand continues to grow, reduced supply will push prices higher—though perhaps from a 10x increase to 3-5x.

The Current State of the Bitcoin Ecosystem

Based on latest data (January 2026):

• Circulating Supply: 19,973,590 BTC
• Max Supply: 21,000,000 BTC
• Circulation Rate: 95.11%

This means about 95% of Bitcoin has been mined, leaving less than 1 million BTC remaining. After the next halving, the circulation rate will be closer to 97%.

Conclusion: Why Is Halving Still Important?

Bitcoin halving is a unique, predictable, and transparent supply control mechanism. In a world full of financial uncertainty, this feature itself is rare.

For new investors, understanding halving is not just about a technical event but about grasping Bitcoin’s core economic model—its value derives from scarcity, not promises made by anyone.

Regardless of its short-term price impact, long-term, this mechanism ensures the supply of Bitcoin remains absolutely controllable. In an era of fiat currency devaluation, this characteristic becomes even more valuable.