Bitcoin, Short-term Rebound but the Real Action Starts Now

Recent Movements: A Brief Pause Around $90,000

By the end of 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) continues its slight upward trend. Current price is $91.19K, with a 24-hour increase of +0.73%, and the circulating market cap has reached $1821.46B. While major cryptocurrencies are all in positive territory, market participants are frequently asking, “Is this a genuine trend reversal or just a temporary relief rally?”

Technical Warning Signs

Short-term rebounds have been confirmed, but there are several concerns from a medium- to long-term perspective.

Key Price Levels:

• Resistance: $90,000–$100,000 zone (psychological milestone)
• Current critical level: around $98,000 (can the weekly close break through?)
• Support: around $75,000 (a drop to this level signals strong selling pressure)

It is concerning that there has been no clear break on weekly and monthly charts. Resistance near the Ichimoku cloud is strong, and a recovery above the cloud has yet to be confirmed. There is also a need to watch for potential reversal patterns such as head and shoulders.

Market Environment Complexity

In 2025, multiple factors are intertwined: expansion of institutional crypto exposure, regulatory developments, and central bank interest rate policies. While liquidity increases are evident, macroeconomic uncertainties are generating short-term volatility.

Possible Scenario Summaries

Base Case: Range-bound around $90,000–$100,000, with no clear direction

• Trading volume remains stable, on-chain indicators improve, but no decisive breakout occurs

Bullish Case: Weekly close above $98,000, heading into the $100K range

• Accelerated inflows from institutional investors and rollover of positions could favor a bullish trend

Bearish Case: Rebound stalls, leading to a decline toward $75,000

• Formation of a bearish pattern, macro shocks, or liquidity drying up could trigger further declines

Minimum Checks for Investors

In this uncertain market phase, it is crucial to incorporate the following elements into your trading strategy:

• Position Size Management: Adjust sizing according to risk tolerance
• Stop-loss and Take-profit Targets: Predefine loss limits and profit points
• Multiple Timeframe Analysis: Use medium- and long-term indicators to avoid false signals
• Diversify Information Sources: Do not rely solely on a single indicator or opinion

Key Points to Watch Moving Forward

Next week’s critical focus:

• Can the weekly close break above the key resistance (around $98,000)?
• Do volume and on-chain indicators confirm a trend reversal?
• Are there significant headwinds from interest rates or liquidity?

While short-term rebounds can significantly influence investor sentiment, confirming a structural trend reversal requires multiple conditions to align. Given ongoing market volatility, prioritizing risk management and cautious trading is essential in this environment.