Bitcoin targets 250,000 USD: Why will 2026 still be full of turbulence?

Uncertain Phase for Bitcoin: From $50,000 to $250,000 Could Happen

Recent data from the options market shows an interesting point: the probability of Bitcoin reaching $50,000 and the probability of it surpassing $250,000 by the end of 2026 are valued almost equally. This is no coincidence—it reflects the current reality: the market is uncertain about Bitcoin’s short-term direction.

What does such a wide volatility gap indicate?

• Investor sentiment remains easily influenced by macro news and geopolitical events
• Sudden liquidity risks or chain collapse events can occur at any time
• Factors like monetary policy, cryptocurrency regulations, or exchange rate fluctuations have enormous power in determining BTC prices

Market Indicator: When Put Options Are More Expensive Than Call Options

A notable technical detail from the derivatives market is the change in option pricing structure. What is a put? A put option is a right to sell—allowing investors to hedge their portfolios by “locking in” a selling price. Conversely, a call option is a right to buy, used to bet on price increases.

Six months ago, call options were priced higher—an indicator of FOMO sentiment as everyone bet on a hot rally. Now, the picture is completely different: put options are more expensive than call options.

What does this mean?

• Large investors are shifting to defensive thinking rather than aggressive
• The Bitcoin market is becoming a “mature” market—similar to how traditional fund managers handle gold or bonds
• The behavior of big organizations has evolved: they are not only betting on price increases but also preparing for downside scenarios

Long-term Outlook: Why $250,000 by 2027 Is Possible?

Ignoring short-term uncertainties, analysts see a clear path for Bitcoin to reach $250,000 by the end of 2027. This scenario is based on several assumptions:

Long-term bullish factors:

1. Continuous institutional capital inflow: Large funds, banks, and asset managers keep investing in Bitcoin
2. Changing role of Bitcoin: From a “pure speculative asset,” Bitcoin is shifting toward a store of value—similar to gold or traditional macro assets
3. Limited supply: After halving events, new Bitcoin issuance decreases, creating long-term upward pressure
4. Deep liquidity: Both spot (spot) and derivatives markets have developed enough to absorb large capital flows without causing price shocks

Signs Bitcoin Is “Maturing” into a Developed Asset

An important signal is that long-term volatility of Bitcoin is trending downward. In other words, BTC is gradually becoming a more stable asset, no longer an extreme speculative tool.

Evidence of this “maturation” process:

• Liquidity in both spot and derivatives channels has improved—less prone to price shocks
• Standardized financial products like ETFs and custodial solutions have reduced price spreads
• Participation of large institutions has increased, reducing retail dominance and control ratios
• On-chain ecosystem diversification reduces concentration risks

2025: The First Signs

Data from 2025 shows Bitcoin is changing:

• Current price: $91.55K (as of 09/01/2026), up 0.97% in the past 24 hours
• Reduced volatility: Compared to previous phases, average volatility has decreased
• Institutional capital: Large funds and organizations continue to increase trading volumes
• Clearer regulations: Key regions are establishing legal frameworks, reducing legal risks
• Custody infrastructure: Custodial and security products are improved, suitable for institutional investors

Bitcoin vs. Gold: From a Speculative Asset to a Safe Haven

A plausible scenario is Bitcoin following the path of gold—widely accepted as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation.

If this happens:

• The upward momentum will rely less on speculative cycles and more on macroeconomic fundamentals
• Bitcoin will be viewed as part of a diversified investment portfolio, not just a gamble
• Acceptance will expand from scientific funds to traditional managers

However, this process requires price stability, clear legal frameworks, secure custody infrastructure, and sustainable capital inflows—all of which take time to develop.

Risks That Could Turn the Tables

Negative risks that could push Bitcoin down to $50,000:

• Regulatory changes: Major countries tighten cryptocurrency regulations
• Sudden sell-offs: Large funds or security events trigger continuous sell-offs
• Monetary policy shifts: Central banks abruptly raise interest rates, making risky assets less attractive

Positive factors that could push Bitcoin to $250,000:

• ETFs and institutional capital: Standardized investment products continue to attract funds
• Favorable regulations: Clear legal frameworks encourage large investor participation
• Macroeconomic stability: Inflation decreases, economy stabilizes, increasing demand for stores of value

Pragmatic Strategies for Investors

Facing two contrasting scenarios ($50,000 or $250,000), a wise approach is:

1. Assess risk appetite: Allocate capital according to personal financial situation
2. Use DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging): Regularly buy Bitcoin instead of trying to “catch the bottom”
3. Apply hedging: If your portfolio has a large BTC share, use put options for protection
4. Stay informed: Monitor monetary policies, regulations, and geopolitical events to adjust strategies

Conclusion: Prepare for Both Scenarios

Bitcoin has the potential to reach $250,000 by the end of 2027 if macroeconomic factors are favorable. However, 2026 remains full of uncertainties, with very wide short-term volatility.

Key points to remember:

• Long-term volatility of BTC is decreasing—an encouraging sign of “maturation”
• Institutional capital is increasing, liquidity is improving, and infrastructure is being built
• But legal risks, monetary policies, and geopolitical events can still cause significant fluctuations

The key is disciplined approach, good risk management, and continuous information updates. With this mindset, investors can seize the opportunities presented by the crypto market.