## Bitcoin Assets: When Quantum Computers Become a Real Threat

### The Dangerous Milestone Approaching

Currently, with Bitcoin reaching $91.55K, an active technical language discussion is taking place within the crypto community: can Bitcoin’s current cryptographic system survive the development of quantum computing? Nic Carter, managing partner at Castle Island Ventures, recently published an in-depth analysis of this risk, emphasizing that the development community needs to act now rather than wait.

### Risk Scale: 6.7 Million BTC "On the Brink"

According to cited analyses, the most concerning figure is **6.7 million BTC** stored in addresses vulnerable to quantum attacks. These bitcoins, whose public keys have been revealed through previous transactions or can be guessed, will become easier to compromise if quantum technology reaches sufficient capability.

Among them, **1.7 million BTC** are linked to early addresses of Satoshi Nakamoto and first-generation miners—these financial holdings often remain dormant for years, forming a potential "treasure trove."

### How Can Quantum Computers "Break" Bitcoin?

Bitcoin currently relies on elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) to protect private keys. A sufficiently powerful quantum computer, using **Shor’s algorithm**, can solve the mathematical problems ECC depends on—thereby reconstructing private keys from public keys and forging transactions.

The danger is not from a comprehensive attack but from a **step-by-step exposure**: once quantum computers operate with the necessary power, any Bitcoin address that has publicly revealed its public key can be compromised before the next transaction is confirmed.

### 2025: The Turning Point of Quantum Technology

This year is forecasted by the scientific community as a breakthrough period in quantum computing. Improvements in quantum error correction and massive investment flows are focusing on increasing the number of usable qubits.

NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST)) has announced a roadmap to transition to post-quantum cryptography standards: **reducing the use of vulnerable cryptography by 2030** and **completely phasing out before 2035**. Many experts predict that quantum computers with (sufficient encryption-breaking capabilities) could emerge in the **early 2030s**.

### Continuous Market Impact Today

Even before quantum computers appear, awareness of this risk has begun to influence:

- **Institutional investors** are reevaluating long-term custody strategies and cryptographic risks
- **Exchanges and custody services** must start planning system upgrades for digital signatures
- **Development communities** are actively researching and testing post-quantum solutions

Preparation time is limited: early readiness helps avoid panic reactions or uncontrollable governance disputes later.

### Transition to Post-Quantum Signatures: More Complex Than Any Previous Hard Fork

Theoretically, transitioning to post-quantum cryptography is possible, but Nic Carter and experts recognize that this process will be **more complex than upgrades like SegWit or Taproot** in Bitcoin’s history.

**Technical Challenges:**
- Designing and standardizing a post-quantum algorithm that is both secure and efficient, while compatible with the entire ecosystem
- Deployment may require a **major hard fork**, risking community split
- Synchronous updates for wallets, exchanges, and custody services are work in progress, and vulnerabilities may be temporarily exposed

### What Should Holders and Stakeholders Do?

**Individuals:**
- Use new addresses, avoid reusing public addresses multiple times
- Follow security updates from the development community
- Understand secure storage methods (cold storage)

**Exchanges and Custody Services:**
- Review private key management procedures
- Participate in industry standards to prepare for transition

**Developers and Community:**
- Increase investment in post-quantum cryptography research
- Develop clear transition plans with specific timelines
- Collaborate to prevent community rifts

### Investor Confidence: A Long-Term Deciding Factor

Any event raising concerns about security foundations can directly impact institutional capital flows. **Proactive preparation, transparent communication, and safe implementation solutions** will be key to maintaining trust and protecting the value of the Bitcoin ecosystem.

### Conclusion: Quantum Computers Are Not an Immediate Threat, But Not a Tomorrow Problem Either

Nic Carter’s warning reiterates a simple yet profound truth: although breaking current cryptography with quantum computers is a significant technical challenge, the **urgency of timing** does not allow the crypto community to delay.

Early preparation, close coordination among stakeholders, and advancing post-quantum research will be crucial to safeguarding the 19.97 million BTC in circulation and other blockchain assets. In this 2025 outlook, both investors and developers need to stay informed, follow standards agency recommendations, and participate in preventative initiatives to ensure Bitcoin’s sustainable development.