2026 Financial Markets: What Major Institutions Expect From Precious Metals, Crypto, and Equities

The 2025 market delivered dramatic swings across multiple asset classes. As we transition into 2026, where do leading financial institutions see opportunities and risks? Here’s what the consensus—and contrarians—are forecasting.

Precious Metals Lead the Charge

Gold’s Remarkable Momentum

Gold captured headlines in 2025, surging 60% in the largest annual rally since 1979. The World Gold Council expects this momentum to persist, forecasting a potential 5–15% appreciation in 2026 under normal conditions. Should economic headwinds intensify and the Federal Reserve accelerate rate cuts, gold could experience a 15–30% surge.

Wall Street remains solidly bullish. Goldman Sachs targets USD 4,900 per ounce by year-end 2026, supported by sustained central bank accumulation and ETF capital flows. Bank of America paints an even rosier picture, projecting USD 5,000/oz as U.S. fiscal imbalances and rising debt levels continue to erode confidence in fiat currencies. The consensus price target range spans USD 4,500–USD 5,000/oz.

Silver: The Breakout Story

Silver’s 2025 performance dwarfed gold’s gains, driven by structural supply constraints. The Silver Institute warns of a persistent global supply deficit—fueled by robust industrial demand and recovering investment appetite—that should extend into 2026.

UBS has raised its 2026 silver forecast to USD 58–60/oz, with upside potential toward USD 65/oz. Bank of America echoes this optimism with an identical USD 65/oz target, citing the widening supply-demand imbalance as a lasting tailwind.

Cryptocurrency Markets at an Inflection Point

Bitcoin: The Debate Over Cycle Structure

Bitcoin prices remained essentially flat in 2025 after earlier reaching historic peaks. As we head into 2026, institutional views diverge sharply on the cryptocurrency’s trajectory. The current Bitcoin price in pounds sterling will partly reflect broader currency movements, adding another layer of complexity for international investors.

Standard Chartered has revised its 2026 Bitcoin target downward from USD 200,000 to USD 150,000, citing diminishing government cryptocurrency purchases despite continued ETF inflows providing support. Bernstein similarly forecasts USD 150,000 for 2026, though it anticipates a dramatic acceleration to USD 200,000 in 2027, arguing that Bitcoin has broken its traditional four-year cycle and entered an extended bull phase.

Morgan Stanley offers the contrarian view, maintaining that the four-year cycle remains intact and warning that the current bull market may be approaching exhaustion. With Bitcoin currently trading around $92.55K, the range between bearish and bullish scenarios remains substantial.

Ethereum’s Tokenization Opportunity

Ethereum also finished 2025 with modest net performance, yet institutions see transformative potential ahead. JPMorgan emphasizes the enormous opportunity in tokenization—a blockchain-native financial paradigm where traditional assets migrate onto distributed ledgers. This wave would lean heavily on Ethereum’s infrastructure.

Tom Lee, chairman of BitMain, projects ETH reaching USD 20,000 in 2026, asserting that Ethereum bottomed in 2025 and is primed for substantial upside. With ETH currently at $3.24K and showing a +2.00% 24-hour movement, the projected rally would represent a multi-fold gain. Broader institutional sentiment leans optimistic on Ethereum’s medium-term prospects.

Equities: AI Keeps the Party Going

Nasdaq 100 Eyes Record Heights

U.S. equities posted strong 2025 returns—the Nasdaq 100 gained 22%, outpacing the S&P 500’s 18% advance—marking the third consecutive year of outperformance.

JPMorgan expects this momentum to continue, highlighting massive capital expenditure commitments from hyperscale data centre operators including Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta. These investments—potentially reaching hundreds of billions by 2026—should sustain semiconductor and infrastructure stocks like NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom.

JPMorgan outlines S&P 500 scenarios approaching 7,500 by 2026, while Deutsche Bank presents more aggressive forecasts pointing toward 8,000. Extrapolating these equity targets suggests the Nasdaq 100 could surpass 27,000 points.

Currency Markets: Divergent Paths Ahead

Dollar Weakness Supports EUR/USD

EUR/USD surged 13% in 2025—the largest annual gain in nearly a decade—as the dollar lost appeal. JPMorgan and Nomura forecast EUR/USD climbing to 1.20 by end-2026, while Bank of America is more ambitious at 1.22.

Morgan Stanley injects caution, expecting EUR/USD to spike toward 1.23 in the first half before retreating to 1.16 in the second half, as U.S. economic resilience reasserts dominance over euro fundamentals.

JPY Carry Trade Unwinding Risk

USD/JPY finished 2025 down roughly 1% after an initial rally attempt. For 2026, institutions clash on direction.

JPMorgan expects USD/JPY to climb to 164, reasoning that Bank of Japan rate hike expectations are already priced in. Nomura counters that narrowing interest rate differentials will erode yen carry trade appeal, potentially triggering position unwinding should U.S. data weaken. Nomura targets USD/JPY at 140.

Energy Markets Face Supply Glut

Crude oil plunged nearly 20% in 2025 as OPEC+ boosted output and U.S. production climbed. For 2026, downside risks dominate—both Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan see oversupply scenarios as probable.

Goldman Sachs models WTI averaging USD 52/barrel with Brent at USD 56/barrel. JPMorgan’s comparable scenario has WTI near USD 54 and Brent around USD 58, contingent on persistent supply surplus and softening global demand growth.

The Bottom Line

2026 presents a complex landscape where inflation concerns, technological disruption, and currency dynamics will shape returns. Traditional safe havens like gold attract capital, crypto pioneers point toward institutional adoption through tokenization, and equities remain underpinned by artificial intelligence investment. Currency volatility and energy oversupply round out the picture—a market requiring careful navigation across multiple asset classes.