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Government officials and economic intelligence agencies around the world may soon have to consider Polymarket's movements as a reference indicator.
Just yesterday, in the shocking Venezuela incident, three addresses demonstrated astonishing predictive abilities.
They placed large bets just hours before Maduro's arrest, with no prior betting records. From a behavioral pattern perspective, this looks very much like insider trading.
- Wallet 0x31a5 bet $34,000 and made a profit of $409,000
- Wallet SBet365 bet $25,000 and made a profit of $146,000
- Wallet 0xa72D bet $5,800 and made a profit of $75,000
It must be admitted that, from an economic perspective, Polymarket has become the most efficient information realization platform on Earth.
Generally speaking, information transmission often has a lag, but PM provides a channel to instantly convert private information into real money.
In the face of huge profit incentives, such risk-seeking rent-seeking behavior will always exist.