Bitcoin is currently in the late-stage correction of a bull market, with a low probability of a short-term surge, but the support level around $85,000 remains relatively reliable.

From recent trends, BTC has been fluctuating mainly between $85,000 and $90,000, with both bulls and bears fighting fiercely. On this Monday (December 29), the price briefly returned to $90,000, which many took as a market signal of a potential rebound. However, compared to the wave of行情 in early October, it indeed appears "powerless" now. As the year-end approaches, institutional investors are busy with annual rebalancing and profit-taking operations, leading to a noticeable decline in trading volume and a cooling of the overall market sentiment.

On a broader scale, although this year has been called the "Year of Institutional Entry," global liquidity has started to tighten in recent months, with funds flowing into traditional safe-haven assets. The offshore RMB breaking through the 7 mark on December 25th clearly shows how complex global capital flows are. Additionally, disagreements over the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations for 2026 have made investors adopt a cautious attitude towards future liquidity conditions, preferring to hold cash and wait for opportunities.

The good news is that the policy environment remains supportive. The new government's friendly stance towards the crypto industry has already led the market towards normalization, and this overall framework is stable. Currently, this adjustment is more of a short-term pause, so there's no need to be overly pessimistic.