#预测市场 Seeing the data changes on the prediction market at Kalshi, I was reminded of a question worth pondering: why are we so interested in market forecasts yet often overlook the most important thing?

At the beginning of the year, Gemini's win rate was only 30%, and now it has risen to 86%. This fluctuation reflects market participants' continuous adjustment of their understanding of the future. Trading volume has surpassed $14.08 million, indicating that many are betting real money on this prediction. But there's a trap here—when we immerse ourselves in tracking short-term probability changes, we often overlook a fundamental fact: no matter how accurate prediction markets are, they can't change the work we need to do.

If you're considering allocating assets in AI-related investments, my advice is to first ask yourself three questions. First, how deep is your understanding of this field? Second, what proportion of your overall assets does this investment represent? Third, if the prediction turns out to be wrong, can you handle the mental stress?

The truly prudent path has never been to follow the crowd in predicting market probabilities, but to make rational allocation decisions based on your knowledge level and risk tolerance. Predictions can serve as references, but the final decision always remains in your hands. This is the lesson that long-term investors need to cultivate the most.