2026 may be a turning point for the crypto market. The gradual improvement of the US regulatory framework, the recovery phase of the Kondratiev economic cycle, and the continuous iteration of public chain technologies like Ethereum—these forces combined are laying the groundwork for a new wave of market trends.

From a timeline perspective, key milestones are emerging densely. The January "CLARITY Act" hearing will clarify the regulatory responsibilities of the SEC and CFTC, while the $75 million fundraising exemption for startups directly impacts the activity of innovative financing. In May, the transition of Federal Reserve Chairmanship and the adjustment of policy expectations may guide liquidity flows. Around July, the implementation of California licensing laws coupled with the launch of Florida’s state-level crypto reserve fund have turned the official recognition of stablecoins from a policy desert into a more favorable environment. By mid-November, the results of the midterm elections will directly determine whether crypto-friendly policies can continue.

On the technical side, Ethereum’s performance upgrades are quite straightforward—daily transaction volume reaching 2.2 million, with single transaction fees dropping to $0.17, a 99.9% plunge compared to 2022. Upgrades to Pectra and Fusaka are underway, with dual enhancements in privacy protection and security clearly outlined on the roadmap. This indicates that network infrastructure capacity is no longer a bottleneck.

The triple resonance of Kondratiev cycles, improved compliance frameworks, and mature technology is reshaping the distribution of global crypto influence. For participants, identifying these key milestones and understanding the market implications of each policy shift will be more valuable than mere price predictions. The market trend in the second half of the year will depend on whether these factors can materialize as expected.