2025-12-31 09:23:12

BTC, ETH, ZEC and other mainstream cryptocurrencies have recently experienced market movements that conceal an unseen collapse of consensus.

According to the latest CME Federal Reserve watch data, the market’s expectations for liquidity easing next year are rapidly disintegrating. The numbers are startling— the probability of a Fed rate cut in January has fallen to 14.9%, while the expectation to keep rates unchanged is as high as 85.1%. Even more painfully, the probability of at least a 25 basis point rate cut by March has fallen below 50%.

From another perspective, traders are essentially voting with their money: they believe that the high-interest-rate environment will last much longer than previously thought. The shift over the past two weeks has been dramatic— from “when will the rate cut happen” to “will it happen at all.” The so-called “liquidity feast,” once considered a certainty, is now seeing its invitation revoked.

What does this mean for crypto assets? The pressure comes from three directions. First, the reference point for global asset pricing is changing; a high-interest-rate environment directly suppresses the valuation ceiling of risk assets. Second, one of the main reasons behind this rebound— the expectation of rate cuts— is losing its effectiveness, forcing the market to find new bullish narratives. Third, can the capital influx from Bitcoin spot ETFs withstand the pressure of macro liquidity tightening? That will be the real test.

So, the question before us is straightforward: do we continue to believe in the independent value of crypto assets and hold firm in headwinds? Or do we respect the macro trend and cut losses in time? Behind every sharp shift in consensus, there are both traps and opportunities. Bull markets often emerge during the most pessimistic moments. This time, what’s your view?

BTC1.17%

ETH0.68%

ZEC-2.23%

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MevShadowranger

· 2h ago

No more rate cuts, this is the truth. The previous logic has completely collapsed. 14.9% probability? Damn, it's game over. May I ask who is still stubbornly clinging to the "easing" story? The collapse of consensus is just a collapse; anyway, I’ve long been used to it. The era of high interest rates is the real test of faith. How long can ETFs hold up? That’s the key. If there’s no rate cut, how can risk assets rise? This question is a bit difficult. Instead of waiting for a rate cut, it’s better to find a new narrative. Hold on or cut losses? Honestly, I’m a bit hesitant this time. The most pessimistic moment is actually the most lucrative; it all depends on who dares to bet. When macro and on-chain logic clash, I bet on the on-chain winning.

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NFTFreezer

· 2h ago

The probability of rate cuts has dropped from heaven to hell, this is the current situation. The liquidity feast is over, it's hard to say how long Bitcoin spot ETFs can hold up. A bit panicked, but maybe not that panicked—bear markets are actually opportunities.

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DecentralizeMe

· 2h ago

The rate cuts are over, now it all depends on whether the BTC spot ETF can hold up. --- Another major consensus failure, this rhythm is really incredible. --- Basically, high-yield environmental protection needs to be maintained, and risk assets will take a hit. --- Where is the bottom? This question is more painful than whether to cut interest rates. --- People who believe in independent value will have to take a beating for a while. --- ETF capital is flowing in, but the macro trend has changed. Who will win? --- From "When will the rate cut happen" to "Will they cut or not," these two shifts are happening too quickly. --- Is it stop-loss or bottom-fishing? This is really a question. --- High interest rates continue to be stubborn, what is BTC relying on to go up now? --- When the consensus collapses, it collapses. What's the new story? Hurry up and bring it on.

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SignatureAnxiety

· 2h ago

The rate cut has cooled things down, no wonder cryptocurrencies have been falling these days. But on the other hand, isn't this actually a good opportunity to buy the dip? --- Collapse of consensus? I think it's a wake-up call. High interest rates still need to continue, so just keep resisting. --- Everyone is waiting for the rate cut drama, but suddenly the script has changed. The current question is, how many months can the Bitcoin spot ETF hold up? --- Really, from "When will it cut" to "Will it cut again," this shift was indeed sudden. Feels like a wave of expectations has been cut. --- With the macro environment so bad, expecting a surge? Dream on. But every time things seem most hopeless, they tend to reverse. Whether you believe it or not depends on the individual. --- Honestly, relying solely on spot ETFs to support the market under liquidity tightening is a bit risky. But there are definitely many who are buying the dip. --- Back to the topic, are you guys going to hold or run? I'm a bit panicked haha. --- Wait, if high interest rates persist, the valuation pressure on risk assets is indeed significant. But is the independent narrative of crypto strong enough? That’s the key. --- 85.1% chance of remaining unchanged… The number hits hard, no doubt, but I just don’t know when the market will digest this news.

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APY追逐者

· 2h ago

The rate cuts are gone, and the liquidity feast has also been canceled. This move is indeed brilliant. This is the real test. Without macroeconomic positive factors, how can crypto rise? The collapse of consensus, so be it. Anyway, I am betting on independent value. How long can the high-interest-rate environment last? To be honest, I feel a bit anxious. Wait, can ETF funds withstand this? That's the key. The most pessimistic times are actually opportunities. Sounds good, but who dares to go all in? I feel this is not just a correction; it might be the beginning of long-term suppression. Bull markets are born from despair, but the prerequisite is to survive the despair first.

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