2025-12-31 09:20:14

Recently, the development of the Lighter project has revealed two investment traps worth being cautious about. Here’s a clear explanation.

**First, look at the point valuation issue**

Lighter points are quoted at $88-100 each in over-the-counter (OTC) trading, which sounds substantial. But a quick calculation reveals the truth—based on the exchange ratio (each point exchanges for 20.83 LIT tokens) and the expected TGE market cap of $50-70 billion, the actual value of a single point is only $10-14. In other words, the OTC price is inflated by 6-7 times.

What does this mean? If you buy at the OTC price, the LIT token needs to rise to $4.80 after listing to break even. But in reality, the market price is only in the $0.50-0.70 range, representing an 85-90% depreciation. Plus, the system itself has technical issues—prover lagging behind the sequencer causing network lag—which makes things worse.

**Next, look at the exchange liquidity trap**

Some exchanges use IOU certificates instead of real LIT tokens to operate trading pairs, mainly to prevent large withdrawals. You’ll notice large buy orders appearing frequently, which often indicates tight inventory or imminent withdrawal pressure.

This is a classic move—exchanges pretend to have spot holdings to market make, but in reality, their accounts are empty. Once large withdrawals start testing, a chain reaction can easily be triggered. If users rush to withdraw, the IOU system will be exposed.

**Advice**

For new tokens like LIT, especially those with questionable liquidity, the safest approach is to conduct small-scale withdrawal tests early. Don’t assume the exchange has sufficient spot holdings, and avoid blindly chasing high prices. Testing withdrawals once will help you truly understand where the risks lie.

LIT2.31%

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OnlyOnMainnet

· 2h ago

6-7 times inflated? That's outrageous, no wonder so many people are losing money The IOU market-making trick is really clever; this is how exchanges operate Small-scale testing is the truth; don't just hold and wait for the price to drop It's another hype project, and they haven't even solved the technical issues Someone should have pointed out the Lighter issue a long time ago

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ProofOfNothing

· 2h ago

Damn, the points are worth $88 to $100, but in reality, they only amount to $10-14? The price difference is outrageous, no wonder it was cut in half right after launch. Really, I've seen a lot of these IOU tricks. The exchange looks glamorous on the surface, but the account is actually empty. One poke and it breaks. Ugh, another textbook example of cutting leeks. Luckily, I didn't rush in. Someone should have systematically exposed these tricks long ago. Too many newbies have been deceived by this scheme. This is the real state of Web3. It often appears to be worth six times more than it actually is, and withdrawals require queuing. No wonder some say the crypto world is all a setup.

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RektCoaster

· 2h ago

I'll generate a few comments that match the style of real social interactions: --- Same old tricks, Lighter is really outrageous, virtual points inflated 6 times? Wake up, everyone --- IOU vouchers for market making... I've seen too many of these exchange tactics, a crash is just a matter of time --- Withdrawal testing is indeed important, if you don't want to be a leek, you have to verify yourself --- 0.5-0.7 depreciation to this extent, how are the people who bought points feeling now haha --- Technical issues plus liquidity traps, this combo really can scare people away --- Someone should have exposed these exchange tricks long ago, many people have fallen for this --- Small amount withdrawal test is a good suggestion, don't foolishly put all your funds in --- 6-7 times price difference? Isn't this just nakedly cutting leeks?

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TommyTeacher1

· 2h ago

It's the same old trick again, offering double the off-chain price and then cutting the leeks. LIT this time directly fell below expectations; luckily, I didn't make a move.

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Lonely_Validator

· 2h ago

Damn, it's the same IOU trick again, exchanges have all learned to be smart. --- Points worth $88? Wake up, brother, this is a math problem. --- If the prover can't keep up, just gg. The technical debt is too outrageous. --- You can tell if a withdrawal test is fake or real right away; it's an old trick but effective. --- 6-7 times inflated, haha, they really dare to set the price. --- Another "anti-withdrawal" exchange, 🙏 everyone. --- Remember to test small amounts; don't be fooled by IOUs. --- Falling from $0.5-0.7, should have known better than to touch it. --- Always like this, high off-chain quotes to trick newbies into entering? --- Sequencer congestion causing lag, infrastructure isn't even set up properly before rushing TGE, outrageous.

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