2026 Cryptocurrency Outlook Cheat Sheet: Highlights from Five Major Institutions' 500-Page Reports

The five major institutions in the crypto industry reach a consensus for 2026: the speculative cycle ends, and structural maturity dominates. The largest compliant US crypto exchange proposes the “Death of the Cycle,” Delphi is optimistic about AI-powered finance, Messari bets on privacy coin ZEC, a16z predicts KYA will replace KYC, and Four Pillars focuses on regulation-driven super apps.

The Death of the Cryptocurrency Speculative Cycle, Structural Maturity Leads 2026

Leading research institutions are gradually reaching a consensus: “The era of pure speculation cycles is fading.” Instead, a structural maturity driven by liquidity convergence, infrastructure development, and industry consolidation is replacing short-term narrative-driven market volatility. The report from the largest compliant US crypto exchange explicitly presents the “Death of the Cycle” view, indicating that 2026 will mark the end of the traditional Bitcoin halving cycle theory. Future markets will be driven by structural factors, including macro demand for alternative stores of value and the formalization of the crypto industry as a mid-tier alternative asset class.

Research institutions agree that the traditional four-year halving speculative cycle is gradually fading. The future will be dominated by structural maturity, with value increasingly focused on “Ownership Coins” that share revenue models and projects with real-world applications, rather than short-term hype narratives. The core logic of this shift is that, as institutional investors become the market’s main force, price-driving factors will shift from retail sentiment to fundamentals and cash flow analysis.

Messari’s core argument is “Separation of Utility and Speculation.” They believe that the traditional “four-year cycle” model is becoming less relevant, and the market is diverging. They hypothesize that 2025 will be a year where institutional investors prevail and retail investors face setbacks, while 2026 will usher in an era of “system-level applications,” not just asset price speculation. This judgment is based on observations that protocols providing real services and income outperform purely speculative tokens in 2025.

Delphi Digital’s macro hypothesis is based on “Global Convergence.” They predict that by 2026, global central bank monetary policy divergence will end, giving way to a unified cycle of rate cuts and liquidity injections. After the Fed ends quantitative tightening (QT), improved global liquidity will benefit hard assets like gold and Bitcoin.

AI Agent Finance and the KYA Identity Revolution

Major institutions (such as Delphi Digital, a16z, and the largest compliant US crypto exchange) forecast that AI Agents will become the primary economic participants. This will drive the development of “Know Your Agent” (KYA) identity protocols and machine-native settlement layers, surpassing human manual operations.

Delphi Digital emphasizes that significant infrastructure expansion is reflected in the rise of “Agentic Finance.” AI Agents will no longer be just chatbots but will proactively manage capital, execute complex DeFi strategies, and optimize yields on-chain without human intervention. This transformation will fundamentally change the accessibility and efficiency of DeFi.

a16z Crypto’s outlook is based on the core assumption: “The Internet has become a bank.” They believe that the flow of value will become as free as information. As AI Agents become the main economic actors, identity verification will shift from traditional KYC (Know Your Customer) to KYA (Know Your Agent). AI Agents will require cryptographic signatures for transactions, which will give rise to a new layer of identity infrastructure.

Overview of the Core Predictions from the Five Major Institutions

Delphi Digital: Rise of agentic finance, maturation of social trading, institutional liquidity via ETFs

Messari: Repricing of privacy coin ZEC, rise of Ownership Tokens, integration of DePIN and AI

Four Pillars: US regulatory clarity driving super apps, RWA asset tokenization, maturity of ZKVM technology

Largest compliant US crypto exchange: Confirmation of the death of the cycle, tokenomics 2.0 shifting towards revenue linkage, DAT 2.0 professional trading

a16z: Internet becomes a bank, KYA identity revolution, asset provenance replacing tokenization, privacy as a moat

Regulatory Clarity and Super App Integration

Four Pillars’ 2026 outlook centers on “Regulatory Restructuring.” Their core hypothesis is that US legislative actions (notably the GENIUS and CLARITY bills) will serve as blueprints for comprehensive market reform. This regulatory clarity will act as a catalyst, transforming the market from a “Wild West” state into a formal economic sector.

As US regulation gradually clarifies, complex crypto experiences will be integrated into user-friendly “Super-Apps” and privacy-preserving blockchains. Four Pillars predicts that the currently fragmented crypto ecosystem will gradually consolidate into super apps driven by stablecoins, combining payments, investments, and lending functions, simplifying blockchain complexity and enhancing user experience.

Messari specifically mentions privacy coins like Zcash (ZEC), not just as “privacy coins,” but as necessary hedging tools against increasing surveillance and corporate control, and forecasts a revaluation opportunity for “privacy cryptocurrencies.” The largest compliant US crypto exchange predicts protocols will gradually introduce token buyback and burn or fee-sharing mechanisms to better align token holder interests with platform success.