2025-12-31 08:40:14

#数字资产动态追踪 As 2023 comes to an end, there's an interesting technical phenomenon worth discussing—since 2020, Bitcoin has never experienced four consecutive bearish months in a single month. In other words, the monthly K-line for $BTC in January next year is likely to turn green. This statistical pattern still holds some reference value in the crypto market.

From a technical perspective, both $BTC and $ETH are currently approaching key support levels, and the first wave of decline has basically come to an end. The altcoin market has fallen to a desperate level—99% of retail investors have already given up, with most either avoiding or shorting against the trend. Continuing to sell off at this point lacks liquidity support and may instead require a rebound to attract buyers again.

The logic is simple: first, push up about 30% to restore bullish hope, tell the story of the altcoin season again, and once those bottom-fishers start going long, the market will truly break out. The period around the Spring Festival is often a critical time window. The trend in January is worth close attention.

BTC1.17%

ETH0.68%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

10 Likes

Reward
10
6
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

WhaleWatcher

· 2h ago

Have four consecutive bearish candles never appeared before? I need to verify this data myself, or I might get trapped. Feels like we're back to the old routine of talking about altcoin rebounds—retail investors have all left, so is this actually an opportunity? Turning red in January sounds good, but the reality of trading is another story. The statement about support levels being "around this area" is too vague. What exactly is the price? Spring Festival window? We said the same last year during the Spring Festival, and look what happened. A 30% surge to absorb new buyers can indeed be self-justifying, but who knows if it’s just another trap? Liquidity exhaustion is indeed the current situation. The problem is that a rebound requires real money entering the market—retail investors have no money left, so why would they push prices up? I've heard this explanation so many times, and every time I can find reasons to justify it.

View OriginalReply0

BrokenRugs

· 3h ago

Four consecutive bearish candles and then it turns green? Bro, that logic is a bit too simplistic. Do historical patterns really hold value in the crypto world? 99% of retail investors have given up on altcoins, so what is the remaining 1% still holding on for? They're just waiting to be shaken out. A 30% rebound sounds easy to say, but the key is who has the bullets to buy accounts. If this Spring Festival market rally really happens, then I’ll believe it. For now, let’s just watch and see. The mindset of bottom-fishing is the most dangerous. What happened to those who said this back in the day?

View OriginalReply0

BankruptWorker

· 3h ago

The Four Bearish Candle Law sounds quite intimidating, but I'm just afraid that the tricks come faster than the规律... This wave of altcoins is really hopeless, everyone is waiting for the 30% rebound story, but then they just sell again... As for support levels, I've seen too many "key positions" broken through. Whether it can turn red next month depends on how the big players want to play it. 99% of retail investors have given up, but how is the remaining 1% still buying in? I just can't understand. Around the Spring Festival is indeed a time when the market is prone to movement, but I don't know whether this time will be a rally or a sell-off...

View OriginalReply0

NewDAOdreamer

· 3h ago

Is this the first time four consecutive declines have really broken through? Then my logic of bottoming out in January is validated.

View OriginalReply0

ShibaOnTheRun

· 3h ago

Four consecutive bearish candles and then it turns green? I don't know whether to believe this statistical magic, but I definitely do. Am I going to be trapped again this year?

View OriginalReply0

NotGonnaMakeIt

· 3h ago

Never even experienced four consecutive bearish days? Then a rebound in January is a sure thing, I’ve placed my bet.

View OriginalReply0