As of 15:00 (UTC+8) on December 31, 2025, BTC spot quote is approximately $87,000, with a weak and volatile contract market, medium-term bias is bearish, and there is a short-term possibility of a technical rebound. The key depends on the breakout direction of the $86,000-$89,000 range.

1. Core Market and Key Levels

• Spot reference: approximately $87,000, 24h volatility about 4%, fluctuations amplified under low liquidity

• Support levels: $86,000-$86,500 (intraday strong support); $85,769 (100-week EMA); break below targets $80,000-$76,000

• Resistance levels: $88,130-$88,800 (short-term strong resistance); $90,000 (psychological level); $94,000-$94,500 (medium-term bull-bear dividing line)

2. Technical Highlights

• Daily chart: under pressure from EMA30, 7/30-day moving averages in a bearish alignment, MACD death cross, medium-term bearish; price testing neckline support of head and shoulders bottom

• 4h chart: moving averages bearish but MACD shrinking, RSI near oversold, short-term downward momentum weakening, rebound requires volume to stabilize above $88,000

• Capital flow: year-end fund repatriation, perpetual contract funding rates are weak, bullish and bearish divergence converging, volatility prone to amplification

3. Contract Trading Suggestions

• Bullish strategy: consider long positions on dips to $86,000-$86,500 with light positions, stop-loss below $85,500; target $88,000-$88,800, break above to $90,000, take profits in stages

• Bearish strategy: consider short positions on rebounds to $88,130-$88,800 with light positions, stop-loss above $89,000; target $86,000, break below to $85,769, strictly control position size

• Risk management rule: leverage on contracts recommended ≤ 5x; single trade risk ≤ 2% of account funds; adjust position only after breaking below $85,769 or stabilizing above $89,000 to avoid counter-trend trading

4. Risk Warning

1. Year-end low liquidity may trigger pin bar patterns; stop-loss should be reasonably widened

2. Macro surprises (such as Federal Reserve policies, regulatory changes) may alter the trend

3. Large on-chain transfers, ETF fund flows may trigger volatility; it is recommended to monitor with tools like Glassnode