As of 14:00 on December 31, 2025, BTC is experiencing short-term volatility with a weak bias and an unclear direction; the core range is $86,500–$88,800. The year-end closing and large option expirations suggest a focus on range trading and observation, with strict position control (≤20%).

Core Market Overview (as of 14:00)

- Price: approximately $87,400, up about 0.5% in 24H, with reduced volume and oscillation; liquidity is low at year-end
- Main Trend: Daily EMA30 resistance, moving averages in a bearish alignment, MACD dead cross, bearish dominance
- Rhythm: 4-hour MACD shows shrinking bearish bars without a golden cross; RSI around 45 (neutral); moving averages intertwined, balanced between bulls and bears
- Volume: 24H trading is subdued, funds are cautious, easily disturbed by large orders and option hedging

Key Price Levels (USD)

- Resistance: $88,100–$88,800 (short-term), $89,800–$90,000 (strong resistance, integer level + previous high); if price stabilizes above $88,800 with increased volume or tests $91,000+
- Support: $86,500–$87,000 (short-term, today's low), $85,700–$86,000 (strong support, 100-week EMA); if broken below $86,500 with increased volume or drops to $84,000–$85,000

Bull and Bear Scenarios

- Bull: 4-hour close above $88,100, volume breakout above $88,800, continuation of rebound, target $89,800–$90,500
- Bear: break below $86,000 with volume, accelerated decline to $85,700–$86,000, further down to $84,000
- Consolidation: volume contraction likely leading to narrow range between $86,500–$88,800 until close

Strategy Operations (including entry, stop-loss, take-profit)

- Short-term (≤20% position)
- Long: enter at $86,800–$87,000, stop-loss at $86,000, take-profit at $88,000–$88,800, watch for breakouts towards $89,500
- Short: enter at $88,500–$88,800, stop-loss at $89,200, take-profit at $87,000–$87,500, break below targets $86,000
- Execution points: quick in and out, single position ≤15%, no additional positions during option expiry window (16:00–22:00)
- Swing Trading (mainly observing)
- Wait for volume breakout above $88,800 or below $86,500 before following; after breakout, build positions gradually up to 30%; if broken down, observe or lightly short
- Risk Management Rules
- Year-end liquidity is poor, slippage high; strictly prohibit heavy overnight positions, leverage ≤3x
- During option expiry, hedge or amplify volatility; if breakouts are invalid, exit immediately, no holding through break
- If broken below $85,700 (100-week EMA), consider adding to short positions, target $84,000–$84,500