Latest data shows that market expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy direction next year are undergoing subtle changes.

**January: Consensus of Waiting**

At the January meeting, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates is as high as 85.1%, with only a 14.9% chance of rate cuts. This data indicates that the market is almost unanimously in agreement—early in the year is not the time for action. Investors generally believe that the Fed will continue to observe inflation trends and hold steady for the time being.

**March: The Key Window for Policy Shift**

The real turning point comes in spring. By the March meeting, the situation changes rapidly— the probability of maintaining rates unchanged drops to 48.3%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut rises to 45.2%, nearly evenly matched. What does this shift mean? The first rate cut could be just around the corner.

**Market Repricing**

The change in probabilities from January to March reveals a clear signal: the market is proactively preparing for potential policy easing in the first half of the year. While short-term certainty is high, medium-term expectations are heating up. This shift in expectations often directly impacts the performance of cryptocurrencies like BTC, ETH, BNB, as improved liquidity expectations tend to boost risk assets.

In short, January is patience, March is the decisive battle. The Federal Reserve's spring choices will set the tone for market liquidity for the entire year, and this game is worth close attention.