The prediction market has been causing some headaches lately. To put it simply, in the AI era, polls are becoming increasingly unreliable, and people are starting to rely on prediction markets to gauge true public opinion. But now, this tool is also being manipulated.

What's going on? Large transactions push prices up, media follow suit with reports, public opinion surges, and in the end, no one can tell whether it's genuine public sentiment or someone orchestrating it. This chain of logic is tightly linked, which is a bit frightening.

The most painful part is that history has already given us lessons—back in 1916, people were already pouring money into election markets to manipulate prices. By 2012 and 2024, this practice was still happening. Each time, they claim "it probably has little impact," but once information is distorted, public trust in democracy is seriously eroded.

But don’t be too pessimistic. The key still depends on a few tough measures: First, media must have discernment—only report on markets with good liquidity. Small, quiet markets are easily manipulated by dumping, so don’t follow the trend blindly; Second, platforms need to install monitoring systems to detect abnormal transactions and coordinated account activities; Third, policies must keep pace—manipulative behaviors should be included within legal jurisdiction, especially to prevent foreign infiltration.

Ultimately, prediction markets are a good thing, but they need to be used properly. If they are truly transparent, highly liquid, and well-regulated, they can serve as a rational reference for judgment rather than a stage for manipulation.