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This round of the crazy surge in silver and gold finally came to an abrupt halt.
The market on Monday morning was truly shocking—silver futures plummeted by 8% in one go, and gold was not spared, dropping 5%. The culprit behind this incident can be pointed directly at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. This world's largest commodity trading platform suddenly announced on Friday that it would raise margin requirements for precious metals like gold and silver, meaning traders need to put up more cash to execute trades.
On the surface, this is just a risk management measure—the exchange explained that it was a decision made based on "a normal review of market volatility." In reality, it reflects a harsh truth: this year's precious metals have surged too rapidly. The data is clear: gold futures have gained 65% year-to-date, and silver has been even crazier, more than doubling in price, reaching a new high not seen since the early 1980s. The silver market back then also experienced manipulation scandals, and this price performance now indicates the level of market turbulence.
So why have silver and gold surged so fiercely? The reasons are quite clear. On one hand, there is pressure from the supply side—main mining production has slowed, and the available silver supply in the market has become noticeably tight. On the other hand, demand is also heating up, with emerging sectors like solar panels and data centers continuously increasing their consumption of silver. Tight supply coupled with strong demand, along with continuous influxes of speculative capital, has naturally driven silver prices higher.
Now that margin requirements have increased, the market's leverage effect may be suppressed, but this isn't necessarily a bad thing. At least it can help calm the market and bring it back to rationality. The future trend will still depend on the fundamentals of supply and demand and changes in investor sentiment.