2025-12-31 06:20:36

#数字资产动态追踪 The Final Economic Data Showdown of 2025

$BTC, $ETH, $SOL, there's still a crucial test before the year-end.

Tonight at 23:30 Beijing time, the US will release several key economic data reports. Honestly, this isn't a quiet period—liquidity is tight at year-end, and positions are still being adjusted. Any data that exceeds expectations can easily trigger exaggerated market reactions.

What about employment?

Initial jobless claims are the focus. The previous figure was 214,000, with market expectations at 220,000. The difference may seem small, but its implications are entirely different—

If the data comes out higher than expected? That suggests the employment market is starting to weaken, which could support expectations for rate cuts.

Conversely, if it’s lower than expected, it indicates the labor market remains quite tight, helping to set the tone for the new narrative on interest rate paths. At this point, you'll realize that this data actually serves as a prelude to the entire macro story for 2026.

Greater Uncertainty on the Energy Front

EIA crude oil inventories are the focus. The previous increase was 405,000 barrels, but the market expects a reduction of 2.3 million barrels. The gap here is quite startling—

If the data truly declines as expected, crude oil prices might react briefly. But if inventories instead increase or don’t decrease, energy sector sentiment will face pressure.

Crude oil inventories in Cushing (Oklahoma) have no forecast—just look at the data itself. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory situation is also unclear, with only the previous figure as a reference. These "no guidance" data points pile up, making tonight’s energy market outlook particularly uncertain.

How to approach this time window?

This is the last set of heavyweight data for 2025. Coupled with the special timing at year-end, rather than heavily betting on positions, it’s better to observe carefully. For traders, this is a time to be more optimistic than active.

From a macro perspective, this set of data could become the first piece of the puzzle for market expectations in 2026. The year-end isn’t just a change of time; the market is quietly signaling the direction for the coming year.

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ReverseFOMOguy

· 13h ago

This data at the end of the year really needs to hold steady; don't get led astray. --- Such a huge gap in inventory data, it feels like blood will be spilled tonight. --- If employment data falls below expectations, next year's rate cut drama will repeat, damn it. --- It's better to observe than to bet; this saying is right, the end of the year is indeed not the time for reckless gambling. --- In the energy sector, with no guidance data, it's purely luck, friends. --- Wait, Cushing inventory doesn't meet expectations? Then the energy sector tonight is just a gamble. --- Isn't this setting the tone for the start of 2026? Those in the know understand that the New Year transition is very critical. --- If crude oil inventories truly fall as expected, a short-term rebound is a certainty; just see how high it can go. --- I bet employment data will exceed expectations; when liquidity is tight, it's often the time for contrarian moves. --- Heavy positions at the end of the year? Only fools do that; better to observe and see. --- The discrepancy in EIA data is a bit outrageous, from 400,000 to -2,300,000? Something must have happened in between.

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SelfSovereignSteve

· 13h ago

This wave of data at the end of the year... really, when liquidity is this tight, don't hold heavy positions. Just wait and watch the show.

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ForkMonger

· 13h ago

nah the real play here is watching which governance model actually survives this macro squeeze—most protocols' treasury management is absolute trash tier when liquidity dries up like this

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WagmiWarrior

· 13h ago

At this time of year, the biggest fear is a black swan event. The Cushing inventory data without guidance is really too stimulating.

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FalseProfitProphet

· 13h ago

Tonight's data, I bet the stocks won't be so obedient, and the energy sector will probably be tossed around again.

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ShitcoinConnoisseur

· 14h ago

Oh no, the end-of-year data is really going to cause trouble. Liquidity was already tight, and during the day I had to keep an eye on everything and couldn't sleep. That EIA gap is a bit crazy; with an expected difference of over 2.4 million barrels, the energy sector might have a heart attack tonight. The prelude to 2026 is all in these few numbers tonight. Anyway, I don't dare to hold a heavy position, just watching. Damn, if the initial jobless claims come in high, we’ll have to listen to those Fed folks talk for a long time—talking about rate cuts and inflation again. So annoying. The data from Cushing was way off expectations, basically a blind shot, relying purely on luck for the market.

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