The Cold and Hot Crypto Market Before the Year-End

As we pass the last few days of 2025, the market is self-absorbing through turbulence. The ups and downs are never lacking; the question is only how to survive—this year's experience is next year's confidence.

The macro news is a bit complicated. The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes just came out, and officials have no objection to rate cuts, but when to start and how much to cut at once are still quite divided. The current consensus is to hold steady in January and not make any moves. However, the short-term government bond purchase programs that have already been launched mean that the door to liquidity easing is open for the next year, giving the crypto market a reassuring boost.

But the current problem is that the market is stuck in two dead ends—resistance above and weak liquidity below at year-end. The recent rally by the bulls is mostly a trap to lure more buyers; the real trend remains weak and consolidating. $BTC must hold the 86000-86500 support line; if broken, look toward 84000. The same applies to Ethereum, with 2880-2900 as the critical support; if it falls below, expect to see 2800.

After New Year's Day, institutions will gradually return to work. Before January 2, the market is likely to experience small fluctuations but remain highly sensitive. To see a true trend reversal, either break through resistance with high volume (Bitcoin hitting 90000, Ethereum touching 3050), or see a daily candlestick reversal at support levels indicating a stop in decline. If there are no signals, don’t overcomplicate things—reduce trading frequency, control leverage, set proper stop-loss and take-profit points, and follow the trend.

The ups and downs of 2025 are already settled; these oscillations should be seen as the market’s self-adjustment. Every step taken is an experience to be stored away. With 2026 approaching, we hope everyone can be a bit more rational and wait for the next wave of market opportunities.