2025-12-31 05:30:39

#Strategy加码BTC配置 $ETH $BTC $ZEC ⚠ Are US stocks peaking at overvaluation? The covert battle between the Federal Reserve and politics—how will the crypto market respond in 2026?

Everyone, the US stock rally in 2025 has been fierce— the S&P 500 keeps climbing, but the tide is turning. Word from the Fed is a warning: stock prices are already quite overvalued.

The numbers are a bit shocking. The Shiller P/E ratio has surged to 40.74, just a step away from the internet bubble peak of 44.19. Historically, this indicator exceeding 40 has been rare, but each time it happened, the market paid a heavy price—either a 20% drop or a complete wipeout. Over the past 155 years, the Shiller P/E has exceeded 30 only six times, with the first five all marking the start of bear markets. The Damocles sword hangs overhead, and no one can escape.

Even more dramatic is the political fight. Trump has criticized the Fed for spending 2.5 billion on headquarters renovations, even threatening to sue, and has demanded interest rates be cut to 1%. Currently, the Fed’s rates are between 3.5% and 3.75%, and in 2026, a rate cut is implied—this political pressure is tearing the market’s nerves apart.

Why should the crypto community care about this? Because the direction is clear: when rate cuts happen, massive capital will seek high-risk, high-reward assets, with cryptocurrencies leading the charge; but political interference with the Fed’s independence will cause panic, and panic leads to bloodbaths. Last time, rate cut expectations wavered, and Bitcoin dropped over 30% in a month, with 180,000 liquidations. If they play this game again, volatility will be even more intense.

So, the current multiple-choice question is brutal: can mainstream coins with liquidity and real use cases withstand this? Or will the aircoins, driven only by hype, be in trouble?

The question is: can Trump really push interest rates down to 1%? Will 2026 be a year of celebration or the prelude to a crash? Will your holdings survive this test? See you in the comments.

BTC1.17%

ETH0.68%

ZEC-2.23%

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fork_in_the_road

· 6h ago

Schiller's P/E ratio is approaching 44, the wave is really coming... This time, many air coins will probably die, and we can only bet that mainstream coins can withstand it. Trump 1% interest rate? Ha, will the Federal Reserve really bow down? That's the key. By 2026, it all depends on the political climate; it's unbelievable. Isn't 180,000 liquidations last time enough? This time it's even more intense, so be really careful. With interest rate cuts, funds will definitely flow into crypto, but this political turmoil... so exhausting. Coins with practical use cases can survive; forget about those just telling stories. Volatility will definitely be fierce, everyone, be mentally prepared.

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WhaleMistaker

· 6h ago

Hey, Shiller PE is almost 44, which is indeed a bit risky. BTC still needs to be increased for stability. Trump's move to pressure the Federal Reserve is really fierce; if the interest rate really drops to 1%, the crypto market will go crazy. I was directly爆了 during the last swing of rate hike expectations; this time I need to be more cautious. Air coins should have been cleared out long ago; leave some mainstream coins to sleep. What will happen in 2026? Do you think Bitcoin will hit a new high first? This political interference is really making the market a bit chaotic. Mainstream coins are still resilient; those small tokens should really be avoided.

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MoonRocketTeam

· 6h ago

Schiller's P/E ratio is 40.74, which is basically giving us a launch window. The question is whether the rocket booster can actually ignite. Trump cut interest rates to 1%? Dream on, but the expectation of rate cuts alone is enough to drive funds into risk assets. We just need to watch BTC's trend. I saw the 180,000 liquidation event with my own eyes. If things really go south this time, it could double. So, don't touch leverage; sticking to mainstream coins is the right way. I don't care if shitcoins die or not. I already sold off those useless assets long ago. Now, just wait for the orbit to stabilize before adding more. If the 1% interest rate really comes, it's actually a signal, meaning the market has burned through the ceiling. Will new support levels appear then?

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