Bitcoin Super Cycle: The Candle Flames and Glorious Moments from 2009 to 2025

Since its birth in 2009, Bitcoin has shocked the entire financial market with its unique cyclical performance. This is not just a price game but a challenge to the traditional financial system—each upward wave is accompanied by new beliefs, and every correction contains market rationality. Currently, BTC is creating a new chapter in history. As of December 26, 2025, the trading price of Bitcoin is $88,680, with a 24-hour increase of 1.25%, maintaining a strong market performance since the beginning of the year.

Why Will Bitcoin Explode? Uncovering the Truth Behind the Cycle

Bitcoin’s price movements are far from random fluctuations. In fact, each major rally follows an intrinsic logic—this is the so-called “halving cycle.”

Halving events are the most critical mechanism in the Bitcoin protocol. Approximately every four years, the system automatically halves the rewards for miners, directly limiting the growth of new coin supply. Historical data proves the power of this pattern:

• After the 2012 halving, BTC increased by 5,200%
• After the 2016 halving, BTC increased by 315%
• After the 2020 halving, BTC increased by 230%

The logic is simple—supply decreases, demand remains the same or even increases, and prices inevitably go up. The fourth halving in April 2024 is a key catalyst for the current market cycle.

2013: From Geeks’ Toy to Public Focus

2013 was Bitcoin’s first “explosive year.” That year, BTC soared from about $145 in May to $1,200 in December, a 730% increase. It sounds incredible, but at that time, the market size was small, liquidity was thin, and price volatility was naturally high.

What happened that year?

The Cyprus banking crisis unexpectedly propelled Bitcoin. When European banks faced difficulties and deposits were frozen, investors suddenly realized—they might need a value store outside government control and the traditional banking system. Bitcoin first demonstrated its potential as “digital gold.”

However, in early 2014, Mt. Gox exchange was hacked, which at the time handled 70% of global Bitcoin trading volume. Digital assets were lost, and investors lost everything, nearly shattering confidence in the entire industry. BTC then plummeted below $300.

The lesson was profound: fragile infrastructure was a fatal weakness of early crypto markets.

2017: Retailers Flood In and the ICO Bubble

If 2013 was a feast for institutions and pioneers, 2017 was a carnival for everyone. BTC rose from $1,000 at the start of the year to $19,800 by year-end, a 1,900% increase.

What drove this rally?

First, media hype. Every price breakout triggered overwhelming news coverage, and stories of “getting rich overnight” flooded the internet, creating a strong FOMO effect—fear of missing out—leading retail investors to rush in.

Second, the ICO craze. That year, hundreds of new projects raised funds through token issuance. Investors initially bought tokens, but the simplest way was to buy BTC first and then exchange for other coins. This created strong demand for Bitcoin.

Third, exchange boom. More and more convenient trading platforms emerged, allowing ordinary people to participate with just a mobile phone.

But the good times didn’t last. In early 2018, regulators around the world started cracking down. China announced bans on ICOs and domestic exchanges, casting a shadow over the market. BTC fell to $3,200 in December 2018, an 84% drop from the $19,800 high.

This crash taught the market: without regulatory friendliness, even the best technology cannot sustain growth.

2020-2021: Institutional Entry Reshapes the Game

In early 2020, a global pandemic changed everything. Central banks unleashed liquidity, the Federal Reserve cut rates to zero, and printing presses roared. Against this backdrop, investors began to ask—what assets can hedge inflation?

The answer from institutional investors: Bitcoin.

MicroStrategy, Tesla, Square, and other tech companies began adding Bitcoin to their portfolios. US regulations gradually relaxed. By late 2020, Bitcoin futures were launched; early 2021, spot ETFs were approved in Canada, paving the way for institutional entry.

What was the result? BTC rose from $8,000 in early 2020 to $64,000 in April 2021, a 700% increase. This time, the driving force was not retail speculation but systematic accumulation by pension funds, insurance companies, and family offices.

In November 2021, BTC hit a record high of $69,000. But this peak was not the end—markets experienced corrections over the following two years.

2024-2025: The Greatest Bull Market in the ETF Era

Now, we stand at another critical point in history.

In January 2024, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved a spot Bitcoin ETF. This event cannot be overstated. What does it mean?

It means that: in the US, retirement accounts, index funds, and pensions—the largest and most stable pools of capital in traditional finance—can now easily allocate Bitcoin through stock accounts—just like buying Apple stock.

The timeline is astonishing:

• Approval in January
• In March, ETF net inflows exceeded $10 billion
• By November, inflows surpassed $28.5 billion
• BlackRock’s IBIT ETF alone holds over 467,000 BTC

Meanwhile, the fourth halving in April again tightened supply. Listed companies like MicroStrategy continue to buy; Bitcoin appears in national reserves—El Salvador holds about 5,875 BTC, and Bhutan has accumulated over 13,000 BTC through its sovereign investment fund.

The result? BTC rose from $40,000 at the start of the year to a high of $93,000 in November (+132%), with the current price at $88,680, just a step away from a new all-time high.

This is not just about price gains but a fundamental shift in participant structure—from retail speculation to institutional allocation.

Signal Lights for the Next Wave of Growth

As investors, how can we tell when Bitcoin is entering a new upward cycle?

Technical signals:

RSI oscillating between 50-70 usually indicates a moderate uptrend; breaking above 70 suggests strong momentum (multiple times in 2024). More importantly, the arrangement of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages—when the short-term MA is above the long-term MA and the gap widens—is a strong trend indicator.

On-chain data signals:

• Declining BTC reserves on exchanges—indicating accumulation rather than selling
• Increased activity in wallets—especially large wallets (“whales”)
• Rising inflows of stablecoins into exchanges—often a precursor to large buy orders

In 2024, these signals are flashing green: record ETF inflows, exchange reserves hitting yearly lows, continuous institutional buying.

Macro signals:

Approaching halving cycles always forecast opportunities over the next 12-18 months. Improved policy friendliness—such as the new US administration’s positive stance on crypto—can ignite market sentiment. Changes in global fiat issuance and interest rate environments will also influence capital flows.

The Five Major Variables Shaping Bitcoin’s Future

1. National-Level Reserve Asset

Senator Cynthia Lummis proposed the “2024 Bitcoin Act,” recommending the US Treasury acquire 1 million BTC over five years. If adopted, this would upgrade Bitcoin from a “risky asset” to a “strategic asset.” It would fundamentally change global perceptions of BTC—no longer a speculative instrument but a national reserve.

There are precedents: El Salvador adopting BTC as legal tender; Bhutan systematically accumulating BTC through its sovereign fund. If major nations follow, demand for BTC will surge exponentially.

2. Emergence of New Financial Products

Spot ETFs are just the beginning. Bitcoin options, structured products, trusts will continuously emerge. These products enable more investor types (pensions, insurance companies, hedge funds) to allocate according to their risk appetite. The more diverse the products, the more participants, the higher liquidity, and potentially lower volatility—beneficial for long-term investors.

3. Technological Upgrades Unlock Imagination

Bitcoin plans to restore the OP_CAT opcode, which was disabled for security reasons but can support more complex contract operations once re-enabled. What does this mean?

Bitcoin could support Layer-2 scaling solutions, processing thousands of transactions per second. DeFi applications might run on Bitcoin, competing with Ethereum’s ecosystem. BTC would no longer be just a store of value but a fully functional network.

Once this upgrade is complete, Bitcoin’s appeal to tech investors will soar.

4. Sustainable Mining Solutions

The energy consumption of Bitcoin mining has long been criticized. But with falling renewable energy costs and greener mining industry shifts, this issue is gradually being addressed. Once “green Bitcoin” becomes mainstream, ESG investors who previously avoided BTC will join in.

5. The Ultimate Supply Curve Moment

Each halving makes BTC’s new supply increasingly scarce. Near 2040, new coin issuance will be minimal—marking the true “digital gold” moment. This long-term supply constraint is the greatest support for BTC over decades.

How Investors Should Prepare for the Next Market Wave

Step 1: Educate Yourself

Don’t rush blindly. Understand Bitcoin’s technical fundamentals, market cycles, and risks. Read the white paper, grasp the halving mechanism, analyze historical data. Knowledge is your strongest defense against emotional swings.

Step 2: Develop a Clear Strategy

What are your goals? Short-term trading or long-term holding? How much volatility can you tolerate? Set stop-loss and take-profit points, and stick to your plan without changing it during large price swings. Remember: most investor failures stem from poor execution, not strategy.

Step 3: Choose Safe and Reliable Platforms

Exchange security is fundamental. Look for platforms with strong security records, cold storage, multi-factor authentication. For long-term holding, consider self-custody wallets or hardware wallets—controlling your private keys equals controlling your assets.

Step 4: Diversify Your Portfolio

Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Allocate different weights of crypto assets and traditional assets based on your risk tolerance. A typical portfolio might be: core position (long-term BTC) + satellite holdings (other coins or short-term trades).

Step 5: Monitor Macro Events

Keep an eye on:

• Halving dates and market reactions
• ETF net inflow/outflow data
• Policy and regulatory developments
• Large institutional positions
• Global macroeconomic data and central bank policies

Step 6: Build Psychological Resilience

Bitcoin’s volatility is normal. It fell from $1,200 to $300 (a 75% drop), and from $19,800 to $3,200 (an 84% drop)—yet it persisted. Every “death prophecy” was later disproved by future revival. Prepare mentally—20%-30% corrections are common in Bitcoin.

Step 7: Understand Tax Implications

Crypto trading tax treatment varies by country, but generally, all gains must be reported. Keep detailed records of all transactions, including purchase and sale prices, dates. Planning ahead helps manage tax obligations efficiently.

The Big Cycle Perspective: Where Is Bitcoin Heading?

Looking ten or twenty years ahead, what is Bitcoin’s outlook?

Short-term (1-2 years): The current ETF-driven and halving cycle effects should support upward momentum. But a 30%-50% correction is healthy and possible.

Mid-term (3-5 years): If countries start acquiring BTC as reserves, the market will enter a new phase. Each major country’s adoption means demand will leap. Institutional holdings will continue to grow, while retail speculation declines.

Long-term (10+ years): BTC’s supply is capped at 21 million coins, ensuring scarcity. As use cases expand (Layer-2 solutions making it more usable), and payment functions improve (Lightning Network, etc.), Bitcoin could evolve into a true digital financial infrastructure—both a store of value and a medium of exchange.

In this long-term view, current prices ($88,680) may seem modest compared to future valuations.

Final Words

Bitcoin’s 15-year history shows it’s never short of skeptics, nor of believers. From the geek experiments of 2013 to institutional asset allocation in 2025, this journey transcends technology itself and becomes an experiment in decentralizing financial power.

Will the next bull market come? Based on halving cycles, institutional adoption, and policy shifts, the answer is very likely yes. But timing, magnitude, and duration are unpredictable.

The best strategy is not chasing the top nor waiting on the sidelines but being prepared with patience. Understand the cycles, make plans, choose secure execution, and let time do the witnessing.

In the world of Bitcoin, the greatest gains come not from perfect timing but from steadfast holding. Wishing you smooth sailing on your investment journey.