The truth about Bitcoin's bull market cycle: From $145 to $88K, how does history repeat itself?

Bitcoin has experienced multiple bull cycles since its inception, each accompanied by remarkable growth. But do you know? How long can these bull markets actually last? From a 730% increase in 2013 to a 132% rise in 2024, the duration and strength of Bitcoin’s bull markets are always surprising.

How long can each bull market last? Historical data speaks

Bitcoin’s bull cycles are usually closely linked to the four-year halving events. What does this mean? Simply put, halving occurs every four years, reducing the mining reward, easing supply pressure, and often leading to price increases.

The first wave in 2013: surged from $145 in May to $1,200 in December, lasting 7 months. At that time, Bitcoin was still a niche topic, mainly driven by geeks and early believers. But don’t think it was over after the rise—by early 2014, it plummeted below $300, a 75% drop. The collapse of Mt. Gox was the fuse for this bear market.

The 2017 frenzy: skyrocketed from $1,000 to nearly $20,000, with a 1,900% increase over the year. This time was different—the ICO craze brought in many retail investors, and media coverage made Bitcoin a household topic. But at what cost? By December 2018, Bitcoin fell to $3,200, an 84% decline.

The institutional era of 2020-2021: even more interesting. From $8,000 to $64,000 (+700%), then hitting a new high of $69,000. Major companies like MicroStrategy, Tesla, and Square entered the scene, turning Bitcoin from a “get-rich-quick tool” into “digital gold.” Yet, even then, there was a 53% correction in summer 2021.

And what about 2024? As of now (December), Bitcoin has reached $88.67K, up 132% from $40K at the start of the year. The driving forces are the spot ETF approval (in January) and the halving event in April. Interestingly, although this rally has been substantial, it’s much more “moderate” compared to the craziness of 2013 and 2017—reflecting a more mature and institutionalized market.

Why are bull markets always “short and intense”?

Bitcoin’s bull cycles typically last 8-18 months, but their intensity varies. Why are they so short? Several key factors:

Halving events create scarcity: every four years, Bitcoin supply growth sharply decreases. For example, after the 2012 halving, Bitcoin surged 5,200%. Post-2016 halving, it increased 315%. After 2020, it rose 230%. The supply constraint = straightforward price increase logic.

The “ladder effect” of institutional entry: the approval of the spot ETF in 2024 is a turning point. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF holds 467,000 Bitcoins, and total Bitcoin ETF holdings exceed 100 million coins. What does this mean? Institutional investors are entering, but unlike retail investors, they don’t chase highs—they build positions gradually, lengthening the cycle but reducing volatility.

Retail investor “frenzy index”: during the 2017 craze, crypto exchange trading volume soared from $200 million at the start of the year to $1.5 billion. Now? Although spot ETFs attract institutional funds, excessive leverage trading is suppressed. So, this bull market is more “rational” but also more “steady.”

Why is the 2024 bull market different from previous ones?

Look at the data:

• ETF net inflows: over $4.5 billion (surpassing the appeal of gold ETFs in just the first year)
• Institutional holdings: corporate and fund holdings hit record highs
• Supply tightness: miner halving expectations + large institutional accumulation, with Bitcoin outflows from exchanges reaching record levels

What does this mean? The main players in this bull market are not retail investors but institutions. Their slow entry, long accumulation, and gradual selling extend the cycle. Conversely, risks are also building—if a negative event occurs (like interest rate hikes or tighter regulations), institutions could collectively exit.

When will the next bull market arrive? How long can it last?

Based on historical patterns, the next key milestone is the 2028 halving. From 2025 to 2028, we might experience:

1. 2025-2026: ETF inflows continue, institutions keep accumulating. If policies are friendly (e.g., the US government truly adopts Bitcoin as a strategic reserve), this period could see moderate growth.
2. 2027: the final sprint before halving. Historically, about six months before halving, there’s often a surge.
3. 2028 and beyond: a new halving cycle begins, and a new bull market kicks off. But how long can it last? Depends on institutional participation and policy environment at that time.

What should you do now?

Bitcoin is currently at $88.67K (real-time data), but regardless of whether it rises or falls, keep in mind:

1. Bull markets do exist, but predictions are tough
History shows bull runs last 8-18 months, but who can say whether this one will be 8 or 18 months? No one knows. The safest approach is: dollar-cost averaging rather than chasing highs.

2. Institutional era reduces extreme volatility
The 730% rise in 2013 and 1,900% in 2017 corresponded with an 84% drop. The 132% increase in 2024 involves lower risk—because institutional funds are more stable. But this also means the chance of rapid wealth accumulation is lower.

3. Halving events remain the main catalysts
The next halving is in 2028. Before then, Bitcoin is more likely to see slow growth. If you believe in long-term prospects, starting to build positions now isn’t too late. For short-term traders, caution is advised.

4. Regulations and policies are new variables
Pro-cryptocurrency policies from governments like Trump’s administration, or some countries considering Bitcoin as a reserve asset (Bhutan holds over 13,000 coins), will influence the next cycle. Keep an eye on policy developments, not just prices.

5. Technological upgrades open new possibilities
If OP_CAT upgrade is implemented, Bitcoin could handle more complex transactions and support DeFi applications. This would attract more developers and users, indirectly extending the bull cycle.

Final words

There’s no fixed answer for the “shortest duration” of a Bitcoin bull market, but the pattern is clear: the length of a bull run depends on halving cycles, institutional involvement, and macro policies.

As of late 2025 (December), we are in this cycle’s upward phase. How long can it last? Based on historical averages, there might still be opportunities in the first half of 2026, but caution is needed in the second half. After 2026, unless there are major positive triggers, this wave may conclude, making way for the next cycle around the 2028 halving.

The key is: don’t be fooled by the word “bull market.” Every bull market in history has been followed by a bear market, and the more intense the bull, the sharper the correction. Rational planning, gradual entry and exit, and risk control are the best ways to survive in Bitcoin’s cycles.