2025-12-26 12:25:49

看盘的人可能都注意到了，黄金这段时间死死守在历史高位，涨不上去也跌不下来。但真正有意思的地方，其实不在黄金本身，而在这背后的资金流向问题。

翻翻历史账本，每当黄金长期横盘在高位、避险情绪彻底透支的时候，接下来发生的事情往往会让人吃惊——资金开始大规模涌向比特币和以太坊这类高弹性资产。上一轮的结构就是这样：黄金确认无法突破，比特币随后启动了近乎400%的涨幅。

为什么会这样？其实逻辑并不复杂。黄金的使命是保住购买力、确保"不亏钱"。但当通胀预期被彻底确认、法币持续贬值的背景下，单纯的保值就显得太平庸了。那些聪明的资金到了第二步，就会寻找真正能实现"资产跃迁"的东西。而放眼全球主流资产，比特币的稀缺性、共识度和上升空间，几乎没有同级别的竞争对手。

现在盘面的几个细节特别值得琢磨——黄金仍在历史高位、法币购买力继续下滑、比特币的供应被长期锁仓、市场波动率被压到了历史低位。这种状态看起来死气沉沉，但历来都不是行情真正结束的标志。反过来说，更像是在为一次失控式的上涨做准备。

历史总是不会简单复制，但它会押韵。如果黄金已经完成了自己的使命，那下一个被资金点燃的，究竟还会不会是比特币呢？

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OnchainGossiper

· 3h ago

Is sideways trading in gold a signal that Bitcoin is about to take off? The last time I said that, I really made some profit. Should I follow this time? I'm a bit tempted but also a little hesitant. Funds are shifting from safe-haven assets to high elasticity; the logic makes sense, but I'm worried it might just be the main players taking over again. Is volatility being suppressed to the bottom? It feels like the calm before a storm, which makes me uneasy. Let me ask, has this round of gold truly fulfilled its mission? Or are we just not reacting yet? Historical rhyme is fine, but could this just be a repeat of last year's trap? Bitcoin's scarcity is evident. Honestly, I remain optimistic, but this feeling of "everything is in place except for the final push" makes me want to wait a bit more. Locking positions, locking positions—talking so much about it, but it's better to see what big on-chain players are doing. It feels like the gold story is told too perfectly, which actually makes me cautious, haha. Fund flow is definitely worth paying attention to, but when others are too confident, I tend to think about going the opposite way.

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