How long can the Bitcoin bull market cycle last? New changes in the institutional era based on historical data

Currently, Bitcoin is in a special phase. By the end of 2024, BTC price has surged from $40,000 at the start of the year to $88,590, an increase of nearly 122%. But many investors are asking the same question: How much further can this bull market go? How long can it last?

Are there规律s in the bull market cycle? Data gives you the answer

Bitcoin’s bull market is not random. Historical data shows that each major bull cycle is strongly correlated with halving events.

After the 2012 halving: Bitcoin rose from $5 to $1,200, a 5,200% increase. This rally lasted about 12-14 months.

After the 2016 halving: It increased from $400 to $1,000, a 315% rise. The cycle lasted approximately 18-20 months.

After the 2020 halving: It soared from $8,000 to $64,000, a 700% increase. This time, it took about 16 months.

Observing the规律: After each halving, the bull market duration generally ranges from 12 to 20 months. The fourth halving in April this year suggests, based on this rhythm, that this cycle could extend into mid to late 2025.

Institutional era has changed the game

Unlike past retail-driven markets, the new phenomenon in 2024 is massive inflows of institutional funds.

Last January, after the SEC approved a spot Bitcoin ETF, inflows hit record levels—over $1 billion in just the first three months. By November, total inflows exceeded $2.8 billion. The power of this money is different from retail FOMO.

What are the characteristics of institutions?

• Longer holding periods (mainly strategic allocations)
• Every dip is an opportunity to buy more
• Not easily scared by short-term volatility

Public companies like MicroStrategy and Tesla have directly increased their Bitcoin holdings on their balance sheets. BlackRock’s iBIT fund alone holds over 467,000 BTC. Once this money enters, it’s hard to withdraw quickly.

What’s the result? The bull cycle may be prolonged. Unlike the “rocket to the sky and then crash” pattern of 2017, the 2024-2025 trend is more likely a “slow spiral upward, with dips but no cliff-like crashes.”

The three main catalysts driving this rally are still working

1. Strengthening supply scarcity

The April halving has taken effect. Bitcoin’s new supply per 10 minutes has decreased from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC. This means:

• Miner revenue halves
• The rate of new coins entering the market slows
• Coins held by long-term holders (e.g., MicroStrategy’s over 200,000 BTC) become more valuable

Tight supply usually supports the market for 6-12 months.

2. Geopolitical safe-haven demand

Global interest rate environment, USD trends, geopolitical conflicts—these macro factors make institutions see Bitcoin as “digital gold.” Countries like El Salvador and Bhutan have incorporated Bitcoin into their reserves. U.S. senators have even proposed that the Treasury buy 1 million BTC over five years.

While policy implementation takes time, once established, it locks in long-term demand.

3. Expectations of technological upgrades

The potential activation of OP_CAT could enable Bitcoin to have Layer-2 scaling, reaching thousands of transactions per second. This would open up DeFi applications, expanding Bitcoin from “store of value” to “application platform.”

Technological stories can sustain market enthusiasm for 6-9 months.

Where are the real risks?

Don’t be fooled by optimism. The bull market will eventually reverse.

The biggest risk comes from Federal Reserve policies. If U.S. inflation worsens, interest rates rise again, and the dollar appreciates, institutional funds seeking yields may shift to bonds, real estate, and other traditional assets. This outflow can happen quickly.

Second, regulatory uncertainties. While the new U.S. administration’s attitude toward crypto is relatively friendly, global regulatory fragmentation remains a hidden risk. Regulations like EU’s MiCA, Singapore, and Hong Kong could reverse market expectations.

Third, valuation overextension. When retail investors go into full FOMO mode, and even grandma starts talking about Bitcoin, it’s often a top signal. Currently, market sentiment is about 50% bullish and 50% bearish, indicating room for growth but also warning of rapid overheating.

How long can this bull run last? Probabilistic analysis

Based on on-chain data and historical comparison:

• Extreme optimistic scenario (25% probability): If governments officially adopt Bitcoin as strategic reserves, technological upgrades materialize, and ETFs continue inflows, the rally could extend into Q4 2025, with BTC possibly reaching $150,000+.

• Baseline scenario (50% probability): With sustained institutional support, the market may last until mid-2025 (6-9 months), with BTC oscillating between $100,000 and $120,000. Expect 20-30% corrections along the way, but no bear market.

• Pessimistic scenario (25% probability): If macro conditions suddenly worsen and regulations tighten, the market could weaken in Q2, dropping quickly back to $60,000.

How to tell when the bull market peaks?

Instead of guessing timing, focus on these indicators:

On-chain signals

• Rapid increase in exchange BTC balances (indicating holders are selling)
• Whales (addresses holding over 1000 BTC) start transferring funds
• Retail new wallet creation surges but average holding periods shorten

Technical signals

• RSI stays above 75 for too long
• Volume diverges from price
• Consecutive days of gains exceed historical averages

Macro signals

• Fed raises interest rates or reduces liquidity
• USD index rebounds
• Traditional stock markets plunge (risk-off sentiment)

Currently, BTC is around $88,590, about 42% below the all-time high of $126,080. But the last 10-15% rally is often the most dangerous—FOMO peaks then.

What should investors do?

1. If you are a long-term holder: Keep holding. Institutional support reduces the severity of bear markets. Even a 20-30% correction is an opportunity to buy more.

2. If you are a trader: Set profit targets around $90,000-$100,000. Don’t be greedy for the final gains. If top signals appear, reduce your position immediately.

3. If you haven’t entered yet: Don’t chase highs. Wait for a correction to $75,000-$80,000 or a deep pullback to $60,000. History shows buying near the lows of late bear markets yields the best returns.

4. Risk management: Never use leverage. Crypto markets can reverse 20% in an hour, and leverage amplifies losses. Invest only what you can afford to lose.

Summary of underlying logic

Bitcoin’s bull cycle is lengthening and becoming more stable. Why?

• Supply side: Each halving creates scarcity, with effects lasting 12-20 months
• Demand side: Institutional funds, national reserves, and technological applications are expanding
• Liquidity: ETFs, futures, and other tools lower entry barriers, diversifying holders

But this doesn’t mean “rising forever.” Longer cycles come with reduced volatility—crazy drops of 50% in a day are less likely, but the maximum daily gains are also decreasing.

Key judgment: To answer “How long can this Bitcoin bull market last,” a reasonable estimate is 8-14 months (from now into mid to late 2025). Expect some pullbacks, but the overall upward trend remains more probable.

Right now, holders are anxious, and potential buyers are hesitant. History shows that such times are often mid-cycle, and the most dangerous period is when everyone is euphoric.

Stay alert, but don’t be overly pessimistic. The story of this rally is not finished yet.