Understanding the Bitcoin Bull Cycle: From Halving Events to Global Adoption

When it comes to cryptocurrency, Bitcoin remains the main character in every discussion about strong rallies. Currently, at the end of 2024, Bitcoin is at $88,590, after increasing over 130% since the beginning of the year—a clear testament to its ongoing appeal. But how can we define a Bitcoin bull run? What is it, and what factors drive these sharp price jumps?

What Is a Cryptocurrency Bull Run?

A bull run—also known as a Bull Run—is a period where the asset’s price surges consecutively, marked by optimistic market sentiment and strong buying demand. Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin bull runs tend to exhibit higher volatility, offering the potential for multiple-fold profits in a short period.

Signals of a Bitcoin Bull Run include:

• Surging trading volume
• Explosive social media activity
• Sudden increase in active wallets
• Investor sentiment shifting from pessimism to optimism

History of Bull Cycles: From 2013 to Present

2013: Bitcoin’s Beginning

2013 marked Bitcoin’s first major public spotlight. The price soared from around $145 in May to $1,200 in December—an incredible 730% increase. The Cyprus banking crisis also played a significant role, prompting some investors to turn to Bitcoin as a safe haven.

However, this peak was followed by a heavy crash. Mt. Gox—then handling about 70% of Bitcoin transactions—was hacked and collapsed in early 2014, causing Bitcoin to lose over 75% of its value in the following months.

2017: Retail Investor Frenzy

2017 was the year of retail investors. Bitcoin rose from $1,000 at the start of the year to nearly $20,000 in December—an increase of 1,900%. This was when cryptocurrencies truly became a mainstream topic.

Key factors:

• ICO Boom: Hundreds of new token projects emerged, creating hype around the crypto ecosystem
• Easier Access: User-friendly trading platforms appeared, enabling anyone to buy Bitcoin
• Media Coverage: Every price surge was widely reported, creating a feedback loop of hype, media coverage, and demand

Result? A severe bear market. Bitcoin fell from $20,000 to below $3,200 by December 2018—an 84% loss. Global regulators, especially in China, tightened regulations, discouraging investors.

2020-2021: The Era of Big Money

After the 2018 dip, Bitcoin experienced a remarkable recovery. From $8,000 in early 2020, it soared to over $64,000 in April 2021—up 700%. This time, different players entered the scene:

Major companies like:

• MicroStrategy holding over 125,000 BTC
• Tesla making its first Bitcoin purchase
• Square ( now known as Block ) accumulating BTC

The “digital gold” narrative gained popularity, as investors worried about inflation due to government stimulus policies. Bitcoin was seen as a potential hedge against inflation.

Bitcoin futures were approved at the end of 2020, expanding investment options for institutions.

2024-2025: The ETF Era

2024 introduced a new chapter. In January, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved spot Bitcoin ETF funds. This was a major milestone—institutional investors can now access Bitcoin through traditional brokerage accounts.

Results?

• Over $28 trillion flowed into Bitcoin ETFs by November 2024 ( surpassing even gold ETF inflows! )
• Bitcoin rose from $40,000 to $88,590 ( +122% )
• Institutions continue accumulating, with all Bitcoin ETFs holding over 1 billion BTC

The fourth halving event in April 2024 also acted as a catalyst. Halving reduces Bitcoin mining rewards by half every four years, creating scarcity. Historical data shows:

• After the 2012 halving: Bitcoin increased by 5,200%
• After the 2016 halving: +315%
• After the 2020 halving: +230%

How to Recognize an Upcoming Bull Run

To forecast a Bitcoin Bull Run, monitor three types of indicators:

Technical Indicators

• RSI (Relative Strength Index): When RSI exceeds 70, it often signals strong buying momentum
• Moving Averages: When price crosses above the 50-day and 200-day MA, an upward trend may be starting

On-Chain Data

• Wallet activity: Increasing number of active wallets
• Stablecoin inflows: Rising inflows to exchanges indicate buying readiness
• Exchange reserves: Decreasing reserves suggest accumulation; increasing reserves may signal selling pressure

Macroeconomic Factors

• Approval of ETFs or new financial products
• Changes in monetary policy
• Halving events
• Positive regulatory developments

Factors Driving Future Bull Runs

1. Bitcoin as a Strategic Reserve Asset

Senator Cynthia Lummis introduced the Bitcoin Bill 2024, proposing the U.S. Treasury buy up to 1 million BTC over five years. If passed, this would create extreme scarcity and push prices to a whole new level.

Other countries have taken steps:

• Bhutan: Accumulated over 13,000 BTC through a state investment company
• El Salvador: Recognizes Bitcoin as legal tender and continues to increase holdings

2. Technological Advancements: OP_CAT

Bitcoin is about to receive a major upgrade called OP_CAT, enabling:

• Rollups and Layer-2 solutions on Bitcoin
• Processing thousands of transactions per second
• DeFi applications on Bitcoin

If activated, OP_CAT could turn Bitcoin into a platform for applications rather than just a store of value.

3. Continued Institutional Adoption

New financial products—from mutual funds to trading indices—will keep opening new avenues for investors to access Bitcoin. More tools mean more capital inflow.

4. Next Halving Cycle

The fifth halving is expected around 2028. As new supply becomes limited, demand could drive prices significantly higher.

How to Prepare for the Next Bull Run

1. Self-Education

• Read Bitcoin whitepapers to understand infrastructure
• Analyze past bull runs to identify patterns
• Understand short-term vs. long-term strategies

2. Develop a Strategy

• Define your financial goals
• Decide on your (short-term vs. long-term) holding period
• Diversify your portfolio—not just Bitcoin

3. Choose Secure Platforms

• Use exchanges with strong security measures
• Enable two-factor authentication
• Store long-term holdings in cold wallets

4. Protect Your Assets

• Use hardware wallets for large amounts
• Activate all security features
• Keep your private keys secure

5. Stay Informed

• Follow reputable news sources
• Keep up with regulatory changes
• Monitor on-chain indicators

6. Trade Responsibly

• Avoid emotional trading decisions
• Use stop-loss orders for protection
• Manage your position sizes

7. Understand Tax Implications

• Cryptocurrency transactions may be taxable
• Keep detailed records of all trades
• Consult tax professionals

8. Engage with the Community

• Join discussion forums
• Attend webinars and events
• Learn from other investors and experts

Challenges to Keep in Mind

Despite bright prospects, there are risks to consider:

• Market volatility: Bitcoin can drop 50% or more within weeks
• FOMO (Fear of Missing Out): Retail investors often buy at peaks and sell at lows
• Regulatory pressure: Policy decisions from governments can alter scenarios
• Environmental concerns: Energy consumption debates may impact acceptance
• Altcoin competition: Other cryptocurrencies might divert capital from Bitcoin

Conclusion

While no one can predict exactly when the next Bull Run will occur, Bitcoin’s history shows these cycles tend to continue. From planned halving events to increasing institutional acceptance, there are many reasons to believe Bitcoin still has many growth chapters ahead.

The key is to prepare—understand trends, protect your assets, and stay informed. Not all bull runs are the same, but knowledge and preparation can help maximize opportunities while managing risks.

Bitcoin and the broader crypto space remain young assets—full of potential but also uncertainty. One thing is certain: well-informed and prepared investors will be best positioned to succeed in upcoming cycles.